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Update: 18:45 Here is the full stats update for the Episode Cup.
STATISTICAL UPDATE:
It might not be over, but it's looking that way, and another dangerously close match here in round 2. And it's beginning to look more and more like we're about to get down to business as after today's poll, where only 58% hit on both matches, if everything holds, we move from 166 brackets within 5 points of the lead, to just 108. That's a 35% dip in the leaderboard, and we're now down to just 19 matches remaining for you to make up the difference. Good for you that points double again next round.
BREAKDOWN:
1st: 2 Brackets still share the overall lead with 55 points 3rd: 2 more are in a race for the last spot with 54 points 5th: 9 Brackets close in with a virtual tie of 53 points 14th: 21 Brackets are standing strong with 52 current points 35th: 36 Brackets stay within a round 3 loss with 51 points, and,,,, 72nd: 48 Brackets move from triple digits to 72nd with 50 total points
Of course there are about another 100 brackets sitting at -6 from the lead, but with only 2 leaders, if both of them fall then all of those -6 brackets, jump to join those within 5. At the end of round 2 we'll take a more detailed look on how many more of these close matches you have to survive in order to win if you're still ranked in the 100's. All is not lost.
And once again those with the outside shot continue to close in on the "smart" guys, edging them out once more, as those with,,,,
51 Points (The Leaders) - Hit 100% on picking both matches correctly today, 50 Points - managed just 50% in picking both matches today 49 Points - picked both right in 56% of their brackets 48 Points - also went 56%, but,,,, 47 Points - caught up again, just slightly, with 58% of their brackets picking both matches today.
INTERESTING FACTS:
Out of the top 106 brackets, 45 missed at least one match today, and 44 of those missed match #2. That's 98% of today's misses. 12 of those (27%) missed it due to mistakes made in round #1. And all but 4 had the match going to "Two For the Road". Not one of them however, moved "TFTR" past "The Incident" in round 3.
Just 1 Bracket of those top 106 missed Match #1 by itself. 4 others missed it as well, and all 5 failed to pick "The Incident" to win today, because they had failed to pick it to win in round #1. In fact all 5 not only picked "The Shape of Things to Come" to win in the first round, not only picked it to win today, but all 5 picked it to win in at least round 3 as well, and some had it going further. Whooops.
BIG PICTURE:
108 Brackets, down from 126 last Friday, are now within 5 of the leaders in the MAX point standings. That's down roughly 14%. With another close match today, we should cut that number again by about the same to around 89 brackets remaining with 5 of the lead in MAX Points after today.
5 Points!! And if you assume the leaders will loose 1 before the end, you're really just 4 points away. That's 1 match in the 3rd round. Just remember where you only catch up by 14% with a 50/50 match in round 2, you will pass all 50% of those above you if you come out on the winning side in round 3!!
PREVIEW:
Tomorrow is going to give us another heated contest. The Variable vs. The Brig, which will whittle down the top even more. I've heard a lot of support for The Brig, but with the winner moving on to round 3, it would certainly be interesting to see the namesake square off with The Variable vs. The Constant.
Update: 13:00 Here is a quick Stats update from Locke4God with another one coming later.
QUICK UPDATE:
Well it appears our second match will come down to the wire today, and so it might take until later to get a full review on what the standings will look like in the aftermath, but I wanted to tell everybody, DON'T PANIC!
If you picked "Because you Left" and are worried about losing, so did both of our current leaders. So you get 1 point back automatically. Also 4 of the 6 tied for 3rd picked "Because you Left" as well. So if it does lose, the two remaining brackets merely have to miss 1 more match the rest of the way and you pick up another point. That makes it a wash, so don't worry.
Now if it turns out the other way, that's a whole other story, but I'll be back later with a full update. Good luck to you all.
Congratulations to both Flashes and Pilot for progressing fairly easily into Round 3 of the Episode Cup.
Flashes Before Your Eyes 1487 71% (46.4%) Follow the Leader 620 29% (14.9%)
Pilot 1765 84% (80.7) This Place is Death 348 16% (8.3%)
There is now a 2 way tie for top spot and it's still anyone's game. How is your bracket fairing? How are your picks looking after today's polls. View Latest Brackets. Today's polls sees 1 pretty close match.
Later on Today our stats guru Locke4God will be presenting us with his stats analysis of the brackets and what it means for your chances of winning. We will update this post so keep checking back.
As always let us know in the comments who you voted for and why. You can also follow along in the Official Episode Cup Thread.
The Incident Jack and Sayid's plan faces resistance from Sawyer, Juliet, and Kate. Ben and The Others/Hostiles reach Jacob at the Foot of the Statue, and are soon met by the 316 survivors, who reveal the contents of their mysterious package.
One of Us Jack takes Juliet back to their camp after being abandoned by The Others. However, nobody else at the camp trusts her or wants her there, until she saves Claire's life.
Two for the Road Jack and Kate bring an exhausted Michael back to camp where he has news about "The Others". Meanwhile, Ana Lucia attempts to get the prisoner, Henry Gale to confess to being a spy for the Others, and he attempts to kill her. Also, Hurley plans a surprise date for Libby.
Because You Left As a result of Ben moving the island, the survivors left on the island begin skipping through time. Meanwhile, three years later in Los Angeles, Ben starts convincing the Oceanic 6 to return to the island.
