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Update: 18th July Polls are now closed and the brackets updated. New Polls will be posted on Monday. Update: 20:50 Here is Locke4God's great Stats update.
I saw a few questions about yesterday's stats post that I just wanted to take a moment and clear up for your benefit. Please be aware that all of these posts will reflect the results of the days matches that have yet to officially conclude, unless otherwise noted. Also the rankings I list are based on your current and/or MAX points, and not on the tie breaker system which currently has one bracket ranked 4th while others with the same total rank 5th. These are just fun, but non-official facts for your enjoyement. Good luck to you all.
Today is actually a wild day, with only 53% of the top 93 brackets picking both matches correctly. The top 93 cover those brackets within 3 points of the current lead, so that will give a big boost to those of you looking to move up who made 2 good picks today. And for the 3rd straight day those lower brackets catch up to the higher ones.
Brackets currently with,,,, 47 points (the leaders) - 67% pick both matches correctly 46 points - only 40% managed to pick both matches correctly (ugh) 45 points - 48% were correct in both matches, and,,, 44 points - 57% hit on both matches (That means 57% catch up to 60% of tier 2 brackets)
BREAKDOWN:
1 - With 51 points, we'll be down to 2 brackets with a share of the overall lead 3 - In 3rd place, 4 brackets will share a tie with 50 total points 7 - In a tie for 7th, 16 brackets will have 49 points 23 - At 23rd, an estimated 34 brackets will have a virtual tie of 48 points 57 - Another 59 brackets look to share a tie at 57th with 47 total points, and,,, 116 - At 116th, with 46 points, just another 98 brackets still fall within 5 points of the lead
Looking back to yesterday, that's gives us 93 brackets that fell from those within 5 points of the lead, leaving us with 207 brackets within striking distance. But don't forget nearly 50% of those at the top lost today, and that means those still outside of this top 207, can easily get back in.
BIG PICTURE:
While 207 do remain within 5 of the current point lead, only 126 remain within that distance in the MAX point category. That is the maximum points your bracket can earn. The figures below don't reflect today's results. Expect each figure to fall significantly after today.
How great did "Dead is Dead" do today? Well for an episode that had been elimated in the first round, it got 33 votes from the top 93 brackets to move on today. That's 35%!!, marking the first huge impact a key first round decision has made on the brackets. That also accounts for exactly 75% of the days total misses. Ouch!!
Just 6 Brackets today in those top 93 missed both matches, but another 5 picked one of today's losing matches to make it to at least the 4th round. That's 11 matches that you're guaranteed to make up points on, even if you did lose one of your matches today.
LOOKING FORWARD: Today's results will give us an interesting 3rd round match between "Pilot" and "Flashes Before Your Eyes". Another pairing of 2 of the top 15 picked to win in the 3rd round, which means they deserved to make it. But also with so many having picked "Dead is Dead," or "Follow the Leader" to be in that match and even win, there is going to be a huge opporunity for you to make points if you've picked it correctly. That match will definately give us some major changes in the standings.
So overall, a big shakeup today. Hundreds of brackets on the edge of contention move closer. We fall to 2 overall leaders, and only 6 with 1 loss or less. If all 6 of those lose at least one match from here on out, which is very likely, then the rest of us make up 2 points automatically.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL OF YOU THE REST OF THE WAY.
Congratulations to both Cabin Fever and Exodus for progressing fairly easily into Round 3 of the Episode Cup.
Cabin Fever 1340 66% (76.2%) All the Best Cowboys Have Daddy Issues 688 34% (13.3%)
There is sill a 3 way tie for top spot and it's still anyone's game. How is your bracket fairing? How are your picks looking after today's polls. View Latest Brackets.
Later on Today our stats guru Locke4God will be presenting us with his stats analysis of the brackets and what it means for your chances of winning. We will update this post so keep checking back.
As always let us know in the comments who you voted for and why. You can also follow along in the Official Episode Cup Thread.
Pilot Jack, Kate and Charlie return to the group, but the transceiver is broken. Sayid Jarrah fixes the apparatus and organizes an expedition with Kate, Charlie, Shannon Rutherford and her brother Boone Carlyle and the dangerous James "Sawyer" Ford to hike and climb a mountain to transmit a SOS. The group receives a sixteen years old distress call from a French woman in the island instead and kills a polar bear. They return to the survivor's base and decide to hide the information to preserve the hope of the group.
This Place is Death In order to avoid being killed, Ben promises to offer proof to Sun that Jin is still alive. On the island, Jin meets up with the survivors as Locke reaches The Orchid and fulfills his mission.
Flashes Before Your Eyes After Desmond saves Claire from drowning, Charlie and Hurley suspect that he can see the future. So they try to get him drunk to get some answers out of him.
Follow the Leader Jack attempts to follow through with Daniel Faraday's plan to detonate the hydrogen bomb after Faraday is killed, Locke instructs Alpert to take him to Jacob, and Sawyer is interrogated about an incriminating surveillance video.
Pilot
This Place is Death
Flashes Before Your Eyes
Follow the Leader