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Update: 16:00 Here is the stats up from our Maths friend Locke4God.
STATISTICAL UPDATE:
Geeeeez, where do I even begin today? We have an unmitigated dissaster in match #2, and congratulations to those who picked "The Brig" to move on. I'll start with the good news which is that we will now have just 1 bracket atop the standings both in current and MAX points. Let's focus on the MAX points first, and you'll see the good news for the rest of us rather quickly.
191 Points: 1 bracket will stand alone at the top after today's results are posted 190 Points: 0, zero, nada, NO brackets will have 190 Points 189 Points: 4 brackets will be 2 Points off the lead 188 Points: 8 brackets will still be just 3 points down 187 Points: 10 brackets will be within one Third Round match of the lead, and,,, 186 Points: 20 brackets will still remain within 5 points in MAX point potential
But look closely. With nobody occupying 190 points, that means that with just 1 loss, anywhere, for our lonely leader, the rest of us get 2 points closer to the lead automatically. And even if he/she doesn't lose, there's still a great opportunity for you to land in 2nd or 3rd place by the end of this. Those with 184 points are now within 5 points of a top 3 finish. And it gets better. Just 4 brackets occupy a tie for 2nd. What are the chances all of them don't drop a match from here on out?
The new MAX point outloook shows us moving from 117 brackets yesterday within 5 of the lead, to just 43!!!! That's a 40% drop. Yikes!! But as I said, several hundred of you at the 185, 184, and even the 183 MAX point levels after today are about to officially jump back in it with just one loss at the top.
BREAKDOWN:
In regards to the current standings, the bad news is that 64% of you in the top 70 brackets dropped at least 1 match today, and all 64% of you picked "The Variable" to move on. Not one person in the top brackets picked against "The Constant", but match #2 gave a ton of us fits, and consequently we moved from 117 brackets within 5 of the current lead, to just 60!!!! That's a whopping 51% drop in the leaderboard, after dropping over 30% yesterday. We're really thinning the herd out there. Here's how it looks.
1st: 1 bracket stands alone with 59 current points 2nd: 1 bracket occupies 2nd place with 58 points 3rd: 4 brackets tie for the last podium spot with 57 points 7th: 11 brackets are very close to the leaders with 56 points 18th: 15 more brackets finish the day with 55 points, and,,, 33rd: 28 brackets close out those within 5 of the current lead
Now don't forget we're still in the 2nd round, and points are not yet at a premium. With just 2 brackets at the top, if you're still in good standing with your max points as noted above, you'll be able to move up soon. So don't feel out of it, but I thought you might want to take a look at a comparrison of how we've shrunk the leaderboard in the last 3 days. We'll be expanding it back out shortly.
INTERESTING NOTES:
Most of the top brackets actually were close to 50% in hitting both matches today. The leaders, those -1 off the lead, and those at -3, were at that 50% marker. But of those brackets at -2 from the leaders in current points, only 33% hit both matches. And worse yet only 28% of those brackets at -4 were correct in picking both matches.
Only 1 match in the top 70 brackets missed both matches today. Consequently that also means they missed the 3rd round match to follow, but of those top 70 brackets, that was the only bracket to guarantee themselves of a 3rd round loss. The past couple of days have offered most of us an opportunity to do some major catch up in the 3rd round, but no such luck today.
Congratulations to both The Incident and Because You Left for progressing into Round 3 of the Episode Cup.
The Incident 2261 95% (92.2%) One of Us 131 5% (0.3%)
Because You Left 1230 53% (54.1%) Two for the Road 1104 47% (30.8%)
There is still a 2 way tie for top spot (Taylor Clark and Sérgio "Wodewick" Valmont ) and it's still anyone's game. How is your bracket fairing? How are your picks looking after today's polls. View Latest Brackets. Today's polls sees 1 pretty close match on paper.
Later on Today our stats guru Locke4God will be presenting us with his stats analysis of the brackets and what it means for your chances of winning. We will update this post so keep checking back.
As always let us know in the comments who you voted for and why. You can also follow along in the Official Episode Cup Thread.
Not in Portland Sawyer and Kate struggle to escape the island while Jack sabotages Ben's surgery, and Juliet's plan to make a deal with Jack to kill Ben on the operating table is exposed.
The Constant During the helicopter ride to the ship, Desmond's consciousness begins jumping back and forth between present day 2004 and 1996. He is forced to find Daniel Faraday in 1996 in order to get answers and stop the jumps.
The Variable Faraday returns to the island and tells Jack that his mother, Eloise Hawking, lied to them--they don't belong on the island. He then initiates a dangerous plan to get them back home.
The Brig Locke tells Sawyer that he needs to come with him to kill Ben. But the man Locke wants him to kill is actually his father--who also happens to be a figure from Sawyer's past.
