UPDATE: Here is our latest update from stats master Locke4God
It's early, so this isn't terribly significant, but just 573 of you survived yesterday's 4 matches unscated. That's 37% of all bracketes. Another 697 of you (46%) missed just one, and there were a couple of tough ones yesterday. So all in all that's 83% of all brackets within one of the lead with only 59 matches remaining. You can cut the tension with a knife.
Most of the misses? You may think the Kate vs. MIB match tripped you up, but believe it or not 4.3% more people picked Danielle to upset Frank than had picked MIB to upset Kate.
In fact over 70% of all brackets picked Kate to make it through, but she only received 55% of the total vote. That's -15 for those keeping score at home. By contrast Frank was picked by just over 66% of all brackets and got 70% of the final vote. That's +4. I wonder what that says about each character in general? Something to think about going forward, and we'll look forward to seeing each of them in round 2.
There was only one close match today, or reasonably close. Just a combined 14.5% of all brackets missed the other 3 matches, while 37% of you picked Horace to beat Boone. Unfortunately Boone is going to win with right at 63% of the vote, and not coincidentally 63% of the brackets picked him to do just that.
So expect the 1270 brackets still within 1 point of the lead to be trimmed slightly, although the 259 brackets who missed at least 2 matches yesterday will take up some of the 37% who missed the Boone match today. That 259 only accounts for 17% of all brackets which means at least 20% of you within one will fall farther back today. Again, it's just the first round though, and we've had some tough ones so far, so don't get panicked. Trust me, nobody gets them all.
Can I make a prediction? I'm going to say we'll wake up tomorrow with 815 Brackets still within 1 of the lead. I really don't know, I just thought it'd be fun to guess. If you want to bet me, just put an answer in the comments section. If you're closer than I am, you get to stone me!
I thought I would take an early look at some potential big time matches upcoming throughout the tournament, and see what you thought. Of course I'm not at all guaranteeing they will happen, but they seem likely.
The one that stood out the most to me was Sawyer vs. Juliet in the Quarterfinals. What an interesting potential match that has turned out to be after last season.
An interesting one in Round 2 for me, looks to be Penny vs. Sayid. I really don't know where to go on that one. Sayid is a classic character who, while not many peoples absolute favorite, still has a high amount of respect among most LOST fans. The same could be said of Penny. There's a lot of love for her, but she's not a main character. Could her connection to the previous winner Desmond get her through?
Or how about the potential Round 3 match that could see Locke face Richard. Or another Round 2 match of Jacob vs. Charlie Pace. Very very interesting.
My favorite though, has got to be the potential Round 3 match of Desmond vs. Hurley. I mean who wants either of those 2 characters out. Desmond has already won, but how far away could Hurley really be from winning himself? He can't be very far down on anybody's list of favorite characters.
Just food for thought. Let me know what you think, and we'll see you back tomorrow.
Alright alright! We've got our first batch of victims! The Man in Black couldn't hold onto an early lead in a close bout, Karl got absolutely creamed, Danielle lost by a surprising margin, and Jin Kwon continues to get no love. Here are your winners:
Kate 55% - Man in Black 45%
Daniel 96% - Karl 4%
Frank 70% - Danielle 30%
Charlie 67% - Jin 33%
The first day of competition has already resulted in roughly 2/3 of our bracketeers getting knocked out of contention for the Perfect Bracket prize of $100. Everyone is still eligible for the DVD prize for highest overall score though. Any thing can happen and we've got quite a ways to go.
Now for Day 2 of the madness! Today holds a number of interesting matchups. Our first battle is between characters separated by time. Then there's a brother versus an Other in a Season 1 slugfest. The third match pits an employer against his employee. Lastly, we've got the definition of innocence squaring off against a man who is anything but.
Who will win today? Let's find out!