The DarkUFO Episode Cup - R2 - Matches 15 and 16

Update: 17:25 Here is Locke4God's stats update

STATICAL UPDATE:


And I didn't think it would happen so soon, but after it became clear yesterday that with just 1 loss, our lone leader would put the rest of us 2 points closer to the lead, he's allowed us that opportunity. And in doing so he's still in a new 5-Way tie for first in MAX points. The funny part about that is, that our brand new current points leader, is not among those 5. All congratulations go to **FICKLEBITCH** for reclaiming the lead (yes he/she had it before) but for the rest of looking to move up, Mr. Fickle has only 178 MAX point potential, which means most of you in the top 100 have better odds at the overall top spot.

But it was a fairly easy day for most of you, esspecially after the past few days. 89% of the top 61 Brackets picked both matches correctly today. Ordinarily that kind of number would imply that there wasn't a major shakup in the standings, but with the top bracket amoung the unfortunate 11%, get ready to move up.


BREAKDOWN:

After today's results, of those with,,,

62 Points - Only 1 bracket has this many current points to hold the overall lead
61 Points - 5 Brackets now share a tie for 2nd place
60 Points - 9 more Brackets hold tight with a share of 7th place
59 Points - 13 Brackets are just 3 points back in 16th place
58 Points - 29 currently share a virtual tie of an ironic 29th place
57 Points - And an estimated 52 Brackets, at least 50 of which were 6 points behind coming into the day, now close to within 5 of the overall lead.

And so after days of whitteling down the leaderboard today we expand it from 60 brackets in contention, back out to 109 within 5 of the lead. And with out current leader assured of a loss in the 3rd round already, 108 of those, plus another hundred that are now 6 off the lead, can look forward to moving up soon.


INTERESTING NOTES:

In regards to your MAX Point potential, you actually gained 2 points on the leaders today if you picked both matches correctly, and not just 1 point, as you did in the current point standings. That means anybody with 184 MAX points or better after today are now back within 5 of the leaders at 189. And there are only 5 brackets with 189. I assure you they don't have the same picks the rest of the way, so several of them are sure to be taking some losses.

Only 7 Brackets of the top 61 missed a match today, and all 7 of them picked "The Economist" to go over ",,, Jeremy Bentham." I couldn't find 1 who picked ",,, 48 Days" to eclipse "TNPLH", and nobody had either of today's loosing matches moving beyond the 3rd round.


LOOKING AHEAD:

Round 3 is going to bring us to the final 15 Matches of this tournament. Each loss now is worth 4, and for example a loss for one of the leaders will drop them back into the 50's. If you are currently in the 50's or the 100's in the standings, a loss now could be devastating, but if you continue to win, you'll make up a lot of ground, as each round brings us nothing but close matches. So I wanted to give you an idea of what you're going to have to endure to survive.

If you are within 5, in the MAX point standings, you need everybody above you to loose. And you need those in the lead or behind 1 to either loose twice or in at least the 4th round where points are worth 8. So I'm going to break it down by how many close matches you need to be on the good side of from here on out.

A match that is picked by a margin of 55%-45% by the brackets, means you pass roughly 45% of the people above you if you picked the winning episode. This is a very loose figure, so don't take it to heart, but it'll give you an idea of what it will take to catch up.

So if you are ranked at 100 in the MAX points, you'd move up to 55. Another match like that and you move to 30, then 17, 9, 5, and then into the top 3. So if you're counting, you need to be on the right side of 6 very close matches from here on out. But we have 15 total left, and almost all of them will be close. JUST DON'T LOOSE!!!

If in the MAX Point column you are currently ranked,,,
20th: 11th, 6, 3 = 3 Matches
30th: 17th, 9, 5, 3 = 4 Matches
50th: 28th, 15, 8, 5, 3 = 5 Matches
80th: 44th, 24, 13, 7, 4, 2 = 6 Matches
140th: 77th, 42, 23, 13, 7, 4, 2 = 7 Matches
250th: 138th, 76, 42, 23, 13, 7, 4, 2 = 8 Matches

Again this is a very rough idea, but if you keep hitting and catching up 4 and 8 points at a time to nearly 50% of the people above you, you can make up some ground. So GOOD LUCK to you all in the next round.

Congratulations to both The Constant and The Brig for progressing into Round 3 of the Episode Cup.

The Brig 1291 56% (40.6%)
The Variable 1018 44% (55.9%)

The Constant 2092 89% (96.3%)
Not in Portland 266 11% (0.5%)

The Brig beating the variable was the biggest shock since we've been doing the brackets with the biggest swing in votes from Bractet Predictions to actual votes. Today sees the last of the Round 2 Matches before we move onto Round 3

There is now just 1 person leading the pack, Taylor Clark, but it's still anyone's game. How is your bracket fairing? How are your picks looking after today's polls. View Latest Brackets.

Later on Today our stats guru Locke4God will be presenting us with his stats analysis of the brackets and what it means for your chances of winning. We will update this post so keep checking back.

As always let us know in the comments who you voted for and why. You can also follow along in the Official Episode Cup Thread.


The Economist
Sayid negotiates a deal with Locke to hand over Charlotte from the "rescue team," so that he can get on their helicopter and reach their ship. Kate joins Sayid for the mission, but she decides to stay behind with Sawyer.

The Life and Death of Jeremy Bentham
John Locke, now alive again and back on the island after the second plane crash, flashes back to his return to civilization, where he is brought in by Charles Widmore and asked to convince the Oceanic 6 to return to the island.

The Other 48 Days
The harrowing first 48 days in the lives of the 23 tail section survivors are revealed, formally introducing Ana-Luca, Mr. Eko, Libby, Cindy, Bernard, and Goodwin detailing the first terrifying days and battling the dreaded "others", leading to their numbers dwindling, their hikes though the jungle, and meeting with Jun, Michael and Sawyer.

There's No Place Like Home
Ben, Locke, and Hurley go to The Orchid, but Keamy and his men beat them there. Jack and Kate go after the helicopter, and are later joined by Sawyer. Sayid comes back to the island with a rescue boat, and then goes after them too. Ben tries to escape Keamy's custody so that he and Locke can follow through with Jacob's request to move the island. Michael tries to neutralize the explosives on the boat, while the "Oceanic 6" move closer to rescue.