OMGWTFPOLARBEAR!!! I mean, seriously, holy frozen donkey wheels Lost fans! We've done it! After an eight-month Hiatus we're just hours away from the Season 5 premier of Lost. For me, the time seemed to fly by so quickly. How was it for you?
Since we're back in action, I wanted to let you know that every Monday we'll be posting the Fantasy Updates for the LFL. That means come Monday, January 26, you'll be able to find out how your teams are doing after the first two weeks of the season. Also worth mentioning is the fact that the clip show preceding the two brand new episodes of Lost will not count for points.
Now we turn our attention to the last LFL character group to be analyzed. It's the Oceanic 6 plus Desmond and Ben. That's right, the big guns who are off the Island and are likely to show up one way or another week in and week out. Who did I like and who do I think will let you down? Read on to find out.
REMINDER: Do not post spoilers in the comments section. The following predictions and prognostications are based on purely spoiler-free speculation. While I have read some spoilers in the lead up to Season 5, no spoilers or anything remotely spoilerish will be revealed here, so please do not let anything that you know slip. Let’s respect the fans that have gone 100% spoiler-free.
Alive Off-Island Group #1
This is the meat and potatoes group of the LFL. With the importance of the Oceanic 6 and those around them, I think the characters from Alive Off-Island Group #1 will earn your Fantasy Team the bulk of its points this season.
To make matters more difficult for you when selecting your Fantasy Teams, this group also happens to contain all five of the Top 5 overall points earners from Season 4. In fact, only one of these eight characters finished outside the Top 10 last season. There’s a lot of points potential surrounding each one of these characters, so your decisions were probably quite difficult.
This group was probably the hardest for me to grade as well. With all the potential and the past success, it’s hard to say who is a bad pick and who is a good pick. Many of these characters should do well but I was surprised last year by the scores, so I’m not going to be surprised by anything this time around. Despite all of these characters being fascinating, I think there are a few that stand out above the rest.
1) Jack Shephard
Number of Selections: 1,698 (34.94%)
G-Man Says: Good Pick
Even if you hate the character, you have to admit that Jack is essential to Lost. That being said, Jack seems to be the most logical choice for your Fantasy Team. I won’t go as far as to say that Jack is Lost, but he is a main part of the show’s backbone. He gets the most screen time and has the most FB’s/FF’s. Given all of this qualifying information, Jack seems poised to dominate in points yet again.
It looks like Jack and Ben are going to try pulling the Oceanic 6 back together. This means that Jack is likely to be seen in any FF’s for all of the Oceanic 6. Sure, he may meet some resistance along the way, but he will show up all over the place this year, scoring huge on the appearance points. If he can patch things up with Kate or get back to the Island and Juliet in a hurry, there’s the romance points that have served him well in the past. Basically, Jack looks like he is going to be the all-around points leader because he has so much potential.
Jack was actually 2nd place last year in the overall Fantasy points but he still earned a whopping 660 points. With the longer season, I expect more than just a repeat performance. The only thing that will get in his way is if he doesn’t ditch his addictions. That stuff is hard on his body and could lead him to stumbling and picking up minor injury points. If Jack can get on the straight and narrow, he will be the crucial player on your Fantasy Roster. By the end of Season 5, I suspect that our winning contestant will have Jack on their team. Mark my words.
2) Benjamin Linus
Number of Selections: 1,255 (25.82%)
G-Man Says: Medium Pick
At first, I was surprised to see Ben as the second-most popular character for this group. On second thought, it sort of makes sense. Ben has an insane amount of popularity and he is in on some of the biggest secrets of the Island. He has seen Jacob, been to all the DHARMA stations and has encountered or seen anything and everything else of importance on that Island.
Only one problem- Ben isn’t on that Island any more. Unless we get some major back story on Ben, I can see him getting shut out of virtually all the Island point categories. This doesn’t leave him with much. Sure, he may show up in people’s FF’s, which will certainly add up over time, but his visible presence may be undone by his willingness to step back and direct the action instead of get right in the thick of it.
Another downside to Ben is his ability to use lethal force when necessary. I certainly wouldn’t want to fight him and he seems like a caged animal right now. He knows what he wants and he won’t stop at anything to get it. That makes him dangerous and a risky pick. Despite his flaws, Ben should perform quite admirably. Last season he earned 230 points, finishing 8th overall. That may not sound like much, but he has the potential to consistently produce the points you’ll need to succeed.
3) Hugo “Hurley” Reyes
Number of Selections: 537 (11.05%)
G-Man Says: Good Pick
Hurley dominated his group last year in the LFL and it has a lot to do with the Numbers. The Numbers follow Hurley everywhere he goes. I see no reason to expect otherwise in Season 5. Last year he also benefited from Island Visions and other forms of weirdness. There seems to be some kind of connection between him, the Island and Jacob that could be an even bigger boost if Hurley gets back to the Island this season.
Even if Hugo doesn’t make it back to Craphole Island any time soon, I bet he’ll be having a few more Island Visions and chatting with a few more dead people. Also, Hurley tends to be pretty non-violent. The only exception was driving down a few Others in the DHARMA van, so you probably don’t have to worry too much about him going all Sayid on you. He probably won’t worry you too much with injuries either. He’s one of the few characters that stays unscathed for the most part.
Hurley was 3rd in overall points last season and he could conceivably do it again. The one thing holding him back is screen time. Season 4 really gave Hurley some time to shine. He might not be as prominent in the re-gathering of the Oceanic 6 but he should even himself out with all the point potential surrounding him.
4) Kate Austen
Number of Selections: 431 (8.87%)
G-Man Says: Good Pick
Kate was actually the top performer in the Season 4 LFL, edging Jack out by 10 points. This wasn’t exactly a surprise to me. She was caught in the dreaded Triangle between Jack and Sawyer, which paid dividends in both the past and the future. She also had a few FF appearances and, as caretaker of Aaron, she scored a couple of kiss points. The triangle is still unresolved, but with Sawyer on the Island and Kate not being on good terms with Jack, could a lack of loving sink her?
Kate also had an Island Vision featuring Claire. This opens Kate up to further Island Visions. As a member of the Oceanic 6, Kate will probably still pick up a few crossover points, appearing in other peoples’ FF’s. I don’t think, however, that she’ll give Jack a run for the money again this year. She’ll score well enough to keep your Fantasy Team afloat, but she’ll lack the punch that Jack brings to the table.
Kate is another character unafraid to open a can of whoopa** on someone when the time is right. If there is any conflict in getting the Oceanic 6 together or any threat comes in her and Aaron’s ways, I can see Kate using some of her toughness and muscle to protect herself and her “son.” This might hold Kate back a little bit but I don’t see it being a crippling detriment to her overall performance. She still is a good choice.
5) Desmond Hume
Number of Selections: 298 (6.13%)
G-Man Says: Medium Pick
Desmond is one of my favorite characters on the show, so I hope that he will be back as a main character in Season 5. This is really my biggest concern for him. At the end of last season he had been reunited with Penny and sort of sailed off into the sunset with the love of his life. I can’t bring myself to thinking that Desmond is over and done with because he was such a great character and his girlfriend happens to be Charles Widmore’s daughter. With Ben out for her head, I’m thinking we’ll see Des again. The question is how much we’ll see him.
Obviously, Desmond is primed for romance points now that he is with Penny. He is also still open to appearance points as well as some of the Island weirdness that has dominated his story line for so long. This is all well and good, but if Desmond doesn’t step up to the plate and stay at the forefront of the action, I don’t think he can compete against some of the other “big guns” of Lost.
Last year, there were high expectations for Desmond, which weren’t met in the end. Despite a lot of great drama in his story line, Desmond’s time travel exploits didn’t translate into points. We’ve tinkered with the points system a bit to allow these sorts of things to boost your score but it will all depend on Desmond’s attendance record. After last year’s let down it looks like a lot of you bypassed Desmond for a more likely points hog.
6) Sun Kwon
Number of Selections: 268 (5.51%)
G-Man Says: Medium Pick
Sun finished 10th overall in the Season 4 LFL, so she’s not a bad pick. The problem lies in whether or not she will be tied intricately to the story line of the Oceanic 6 or not. She’s always struggled for equal screen time on Lost and was given a time to shine last year but it was a little short-lived. Being in Korea, away from the other members of the 6, decreases her value a little in my book. It will require extra effort to go find her and sign her up for a return mission, so she probably won’t factor in too heavily to all the Oceanic 6 events early on.
With Jin (supposedly) gone, there is little room for romance points outside of kissing her baby girl, Ji-Yeon. Even then, we don’t know how much Ji-Yeon will be involved in Sun’s story line this year. Despite all the seeming negatives, Sun could still perform admirably, but probably not to the same level as Jack or Kate. She’s a bit of a risk for this group because this is the group that will probably end up earning the most points all season. At least I think so.
There were certainly better options than Sun in this group, but I’m glad that some people went with her. Diversity is a good thing and will help keep the leader boards interesting.
7) Sayid Jarrah
Number of Selections: 248 (5.10%)
G-Man Says: Bad Pick
If there was a point category for having fabulous hair, then I think I could recommend Sayid but let’s face it- the man is a killing machine. Despite the fact that Sayid finished 4th overall last season in Fantasy points, I just don’t think it’s safe enough to pick him in Season 5.
Last year Sayid got a boost out of his centric episode, which featured lots of kissing and some sex points. This year I just don’t see him having sex. He seems to have lost all his emotion in the future, as if he were a shell of his former self. Granted, if we see FB’s of Sayid after the rescue and before Nadia died, then he could score a few quick romance points. I don’t know how likely that will be though, as the story is propelled further along at high gear.
He shows up a lot and all but his work for Ben has to be a concern for Fantasy owners. It seems like a lot of you realized the risk of putting a hit man on your Fantasy Teams. It’s a move you won’t regret. There are just too many better choices in this group.
8) Aaron Littleton
Number of Selections: 125 (2.57%)
G-Man Says: Bad Pick
Aaron was a huge surprise last season. Being a part of the Oceanic 6 really shot him up the standings, where he finished 5th overall with 290 points. This caught everyone, even me off guard. He got all kinds of kiss points and appearance points to boot. This year, I’m not so positive on Aaron.
While the little guy may show up, especially in Kate-centric episodes, I think he’ll return to a supporting role now that the show isn’t as focused on the Oceanic 6. He’s still got kiss potential and appearance potential, but a few things make me worried about him.
Will he need to go back to the Island as well? Will Claire’s mom (or anyone for that matter) find out he is not Kate’s and get taken away? While I doubt there is any risk to Aaron’s wellbeing, there are plenty of scenarios that could take him out of the action, thereby reducing his value to you. All things considered, there are just too many better options in this group to chance it on the Island baby.
This is the meat and potatoes group of the LFL. With the importance of the Oceanic 6 and those around them, I think the characters from Alive Off-Island Group #1 will earn your Fantasy Team the bulk of its points this season.
To make matters more difficult for you when selecting your Fantasy Teams, this group also happens to contain all five of the Top 5 overall points earners from Season 4. In fact, only one of these eight characters finished outside the Top 10 last season. There’s a lot of points potential surrounding each one of these characters, so your decisions were probably quite difficult.
This group was probably the hardest for me to grade as well. With all the potential and the past success, it’s hard to say who is a bad pick and who is a good pick. Many of these characters should do well but I was surprised last year by the scores, so I’m not going to be surprised by anything this time around. Despite all of these characters being fascinating, I think there are a few that stand out above the rest.
1) Jack Shephard
Number of Selections: 1,698 (34.94%)
G-Man Says: Good Pick
Even if you hate the character, you have to admit that Jack is essential to Lost. That being said, Jack seems to be the most logical choice for your Fantasy Team. I won’t go as far as to say that Jack is Lost, but he is a main part of the show’s backbone. He gets the most screen time and has the most FB’s/FF’s. Given all of this qualifying information, Jack seems poised to dominate in points yet again.
It looks like Jack and Ben are going to try pulling the Oceanic 6 back together. This means that Jack is likely to be seen in any FF’s for all of the Oceanic 6. Sure, he may meet some resistance along the way, but he will show up all over the place this year, scoring huge on the appearance points. If he can patch things up with Kate or get back to the Island and Juliet in a hurry, there’s the romance points that have served him well in the past. Basically, Jack looks like he is going to be the all-around points leader because he has so much potential.
Jack was actually 2nd place last year in the overall Fantasy points but he still earned a whopping 660 points. With the longer season, I expect more than just a repeat performance. The only thing that will get in his way is if he doesn’t ditch his addictions. That stuff is hard on his body and could lead him to stumbling and picking up minor injury points. If Jack can get on the straight and narrow, he will be the crucial player on your Fantasy Roster. By the end of Season 5, I suspect that our winning contestant will have Jack on their team. Mark my words.
2) Benjamin Linus
Number of Selections: 1,255 (25.82%)
G-Man Says: Medium Pick
At first, I was surprised to see Ben as the second-most popular character for this group. On second thought, it sort of makes sense. Ben has an insane amount of popularity and he is in on some of the biggest secrets of the Island. He has seen Jacob, been to all the DHARMA stations and has encountered or seen anything and everything else of importance on that Island.
Only one problem- Ben isn’t on that Island any more. Unless we get some major back story on Ben, I can see him getting shut out of virtually all the Island point categories. This doesn’t leave him with much. Sure, he may show up in people’s FF’s, which will certainly add up over time, but his visible presence may be undone by his willingness to step back and direct the action instead of get right in the thick of it.
Another downside to Ben is his ability to use lethal force when necessary. I certainly wouldn’t want to fight him and he seems like a caged animal right now. He knows what he wants and he won’t stop at anything to get it. That makes him dangerous and a risky pick. Despite his flaws, Ben should perform quite admirably. Last season he earned 230 points, finishing 8th overall. That may not sound like much, but he has the potential to consistently produce the points you’ll need to succeed.
3) Hugo “Hurley” Reyes
Number of Selections: 537 (11.05%)
G-Man Says: Good Pick
Hurley dominated his group last year in the LFL and it has a lot to do with the Numbers. The Numbers follow Hurley everywhere he goes. I see no reason to expect otherwise in Season 5. Last year he also benefited from Island Visions and other forms of weirdness. There seems to be some kind of connection between him, the Island and Jacob that could be an even bigger boost if Hurley gets back to the Island this season.
Even if Hugo doesn’t make it back to Craphole Island any time soon, I bet he’ll be having a few more Island Visions and chatting with a few more dead people. Also, Hurley tends to be pretty non-violent. The only exception was driving down a few Others in the DHARMA van, so you probably don’t have to worry too much about him going all Sayid on you. He probably won’t worry you too much with injuries either. He’s one of the few characters that stays unscathed for the most part.
Hurley was 3rd in overall points last season and he could conceivably do it again. The one thing holding him back is screen time. Season 4 really gave Hurley some time to shine. He might not be as prominent in the re-gathering of the Oceanic 6 but he should even himself out with all the point potential surrounding him.
4) Kate Austen
Number of Selections: 431 (8.87%)
G-Man Says: Good Pick
Kate was actually the top performer in the Season 4 LFL, edging Jack out by 10 points. This wasn’t exactly a surprise to me. She was caught in the dreaded Triangle between Jack and Sawyer, which paid dividends in both the past and the future. She also had a few FF appearances and, as caretaker of Aaron, she scored a couple of kiss points. The triangle is still unresolved, but with Sawyer on the Island and Kate not being on good terms with Jack, could a lack of loving sink her?
Kate also had an Island Vision featuring Claire. This opens Kate up to further Island Visions. As a member of the Oceanic 6, Kate will probably still pick up a few crossover points, appearing in other peoples’ FF’s. I don’t think, however, that she’ll give Jack a run for the money again this year. She’ll score well enough to keep your Fantasy Team afloat, but she’ll lack the punch that Jack brings to the table.
Kate is another character unafraid to open a can of whoopa** on someone when the time is right. If there is any conflict in getting the Oceanic 6 together or any threat comes in her and Aaron’s ways, I can see Kate using some of her toughness and muscle to protect herself and her “son.” This might hold Kate back a little bit but I don’t see it being a crippling detriment to her overall performance. She still is a good choice.
5) Desmond Hume
Number of Selections: 298 (6.13%)
G-Man Says: Medium Pick
Desmond is one of my favorite characters on the show, so I hope that he will be back as a main character in Season 5. This is really my biggest concern for him. At the end of last season he had been reunited with Penny and sort of sailed off into the sunset with the love of his life. I can’t bring myself to thinking that Desmond is over and done with because he was such a great character and his girlfriend happens to be Charles Widmore’s daughter. With Ben out for her head, I’m thinking we’ll see Des again. The question is how much we’ll see him.
Obviously, Desmond is primed for romance points now that he is with Penny. He is also still open to appearance points as well as some of the Island weirdness that has dominated his story line for so long. This is all well and good, but if Desmond doesn’t step up to the plate and stay at the forefront of the action, I don’t think he can compete against some of the other “big guns” of Lost.
Last year, there were high expectations for Desmond, which weren’t met in the end. Despite a lot of great drama in his story line, Desmond’s time travel exploits didn’t translate into points. We’ve tinkered with the points system a bit to allow these sorts of things to boost your score but it will all depend on Desmond’s attendance record. After last year’s let down it looks like a lot of you bypassed Desmond for a more likely points hog.
6) Sun Kwon
Number of Selections: 268 (5.51%)
G-Man Says: Medium Pick
Sun finished 10th overall in the Season 4 LFL, so she’s not a bad pick. The problem lies in whether or not she will be tied intricately to the story line of the Oceanic 6 or not. She’s always struggled for equal screen time on Lost and was given a time to shine last year but it was a little short-lived. Being in Korea, away from the other members of the 6, decreases her value a little in my book. It will require extra effort to go find her and sign her up for a return mission, so she probably won’t factor in too heavily to all the Oceanic 6 events early on.
With Jin (supposedly) gone, there is little room for romance points outside of kissing her baby girl, Ji-Yeon. Even then, we don’t know how much Ji-Yeon will be involved in Sun’s story line this year. Despite all the seeming negatives, Sun could still perform admirably, but probably not to the same level as Jack or Kate. She’s a bit of a risk for this group because this is the group that will probably end up earning the most points all season. At least I think so.
There were certainly better options than Sun in this group, but I’m glad that some people went with her. Diversity is a good thing and will help keep the leader boards interesting.
7) Sayid Jarrah
Number of Selections: 248 (5.10%)
G-Man Says: Bad Pick
If there was a point category for having fabulous hair, then I think I could recommend Sayid but let’s face it- the man is a killing machine. Despite the fact that Sayid finished 4th overall last season in Fantasy points, I just don’t think it’s safe enough to pick him in Season 5.
Last year Sayid got a boost out of his centric episode, which featured lots of kissing and some sex points. This year I just don’t see him having sex. He seems to have lost all his emotion in the future, as if he were a shell of his former self. Granted, if we see FB’s of Sayid after the rescue and before Nadia died, then he could score a few quick romance points. I don’t know how likely that will be though, as the story is propelled further along at high gear.
He shows up a lot and all but his work for Ben has to be a concern for Fantasy owners. It seems like a lot of you realized the risk of putting a hit man on your Fantasy Teams. It’s a move you won’t regret. There are just too many better choices in this group.
8) Aaron Littleton
Number of Selections: 125 (2.57%)
G-Man Says: Bad Pick
Aaron was a huge surprise last season. Being a part of the Oceanic 6 really shot him up the standings, where he finished 5th overall with 290 points. This caught everyone, even me off guard. He got all kinds of kiss points and appearance points to boot. This year, I’m not so positive on Aaron.
While the little guy may show up, especially in Kate-centric episodes, I think he’ll return to a supporting role now that the show isn’t as focused on the Oceanic 6. He’s still got kiss potential and appearance potential, but a few things make me worried about him.
Will he need to go back to the Island as well? Will Claire’s mom (or anyone for that matter) find out he is not Kate’s and get taken away? While I doubt there is any risk to Aaron’s wellbeing, there are plenty of scenarios that could take him out of the action, thereby reducing his value to you. All things considered, there are just too many better options in this group to chance it on the Island baby.
And one last time for good measure, here's the rule book!
