Hey there Lost fans! Can you believe that we're only ONE WEEK away from the return of Lost?
As many of you know, the return of Lost means the return of the Lost Fantasy League! Dig into the depths of your inboxes and dust off your Fantasy Team selections- the time to shine is coming! After the success of the Season 4 LFL, we've made things bigger and better this time around. Who is going to win it all?
Now as we get closer to gametime, I thought I would share my thoughts on each character in this year's League. Over the next eight days I will reveal my predictions for each of the character groups. Did you make a good choice or a bad choice? Will your Fantasy Team perform admirably or crumble into oblivion? We can't know for sure, but here is what I've been thinking:
REMINDER: Do not post spoilers in the comments section. The following predictions and prognostications are based on purely spoiler-free speculation. While I have read some spoilers in the lead up to Season 5, no spoilers or anything remotely spoilerish will be revealed here, so please do not let anything that you know slip. Let’s respect the fans that have gone 100% spoiler-free.
Alive Off-Island Group #3
These are the characters who we felt had at least a halfway decent chance at showing up at least once during Season 5. They very well might not show. In fact, selecting characters from Alive Off-Island Group #3 should have been more of an exercise in determining who would lose you the least points of the course of the season rather than who would earn you the most. Most of these characters will only appear once, if at all. Then again, I said the same about several characters last season and I ended up with egg on my face over such bold proclamations.
The similarly-constructed lower tier groups in the Season 4 LFL performed very poorly, losing more points than they earned over the course of the truncated season. Out of 35 characters in last year’s League, there were only 6 no-shows. Will this group repeat history or will we have a few surprise game makers and breakers emerge? Let’s see how you felt about these folk.
1) Ji-Yeon Kwon
Number of Selections: 3,129 (64.38%)
G-Man Says: Good Pick
Kiddie Kwon is one of the newest additions to the show (though she has technically been around since, what- Season 2?) and will quite young if we see more of Sun’s life after the rescue of the Oceanic 6. Perhaps she was too easy of a choice for this group, as Ji-Yeon is officially the most selected character in the entire LFL this season. Still though, while she has a better than average chance of showing up, she may have less points potential than you envisioned.
Ji-Yeon will be a lock for appearance points only if Sun carries her in tow. Without Sun around, it is very unlikely that Ji-Yeon will appear. So, her points potential is directly related to Sun’s involvement and whether or not she brings her daughter on her travels. As a young child, I would say that there is high potential for Ji-Yeon to pick up some points for being kissed by her mother. Sun seems like a very motherly and affectionate woman.
I’d say she’s more or less worry free when it comes to injury points. Other than the Tail Section kids and Walt being abducted, very little harm has come to children on this show. In the end, Ji-Yeon’s productivity will depend almost entirely on her mother. With nearly 2/3 of participants selecting her, Ji-Yeon could be a very bland points earner or a massive disappointment, allowing the rest of you to make up some ground through the remaining lower-tier characters.
2) Sarah Shephard
Number of Selections: 371 (7.63%)
G-Man Says: Bad Pick
Sarah last appeared in the Season 3 finale and, considering the weighty issues that Jack is dealing with when we last saw him, I sincerely doubt that he’ll bother to try and patch things up with his ex. Sarah is over Jack and I think that Jack is over Sarah. The only conceivable way for Sarah to be any part of Jack’s post-rescue story is a chance encounter similar to the one in “Through the Looking Glass.” Sarah was said to be happy with her new man and Jack finally gets it and for a while there he was awfully homey with Kate, so I doubt any affection still lingers for Sarah.
I can’t imagine any pre-Island flashbacks for Jack anymore because his back story has been virtually wiped out. Thus, I don’t see Sarah coming into the picture at all in the past, present or future. Besides, with trying to get back to the Island and all, I doubt Ben would let Jack get distracted by something as trivial as his ex-wife. Sorry to those of you who picked her- I believe whole-heartedly that Sarah will be a no show and you will lose valuable points because of her each week.
3) Carmen Reyes
Number of Selections: 328 (6.75%)
G-Man Says: Good Pick
I think that both of Hurley’s parents hold a strong chance of showing up this season. Carmen Reyes has been around since Season 1 and has shown up every year. With that kind of track record, you have to like her odds of appearing this season.
We’ve seen into Hurley’s future and both of his parents are there. They seemed to care about his well-being before he got thrown back into Santa Rosa, so if we see Hurley post-rescue but before Santa Rosa, I think it’s a safe bet that we’ll see his mother.
Because her son is followed by the Numbers, I think Carmen has better than average points potential. She could pick up some Numbers points as well as points for kissing her son and/or her husband. For a low-tier character, Carmen could be a solid performer, though I wouldn’t think to see her in more than one or two episodes.
4) Michael’s Mother
Number of Selections: 320 (6.58%)
G-Man Says: Medium Pick
We saw Michael’s mother twice during Season 4- once when Michael came to see his son and once when Walt visited Hurley in Santa Rosa. While she had a good presence in Season 4, her points potential in Season 5 is directly related to Walt’s involvement in the story. This makes her a pretty risky choice because we’ve had little to no indication how involved Walt is going to be from here on out.
If Walt is going to be involved, it seems reasonable to think Michael’s mother will appear. If anyone from the Oceanic 6 seeks out Walt, it’s not a stretch to assume that Michael’s mom will act as a buffer to her grandson. If Walt is part of a prolonged plot thread, Michael’s mom could appear in as many as 3-4 episodes, but I’d count more on a one and done. This makes her open to FB and FF points, depending on the story line.
She’s risky, but could potentially pay off big.
5) David Reyes
Number of Selections: 286 (5.88%)
G-Man Says: Good Pick
Just like his wife Carmen, I think there is a solid chance of David turning up this season. While he may not be the poster child for parenting excellence, David Reyes came back into Hurley’s life before the crash of Oceanic 815 and has been seen after his rescue. David also seemed genuinely concerned for Hugo, so I don’t think he’s going to split on him again.
With Hurley around, David also has a lot of potential for Numbers points, as they follow Hurley everywhere. He could also pick up FF or FB points, depending on when the part of Hurley’s story we see takes place. Not likely to show up more than once or twice, but that’s the case with everyone in this group.
6) Margo Shephard
Number of Selections: 217 (4.47%)
G-Man Says: Bad Pick
Considering she only showed up briefly in Season 1 and Season 4, is it any surprise that I’m not glowing with support for those who picked Margo? She and Jack never seemed to have the warmest of relationships to begin with. Plus, with all that Jack has on his slate where we last saw him, so you really expect to see much mother-son bonding time? There’s a chance that we’ll see a time between Jack’s return from the Island and his encounter with Ben in the funeral parlor where Jack and Margot could catch up, but it’s Season 5. Things are moving full speed ahead and I really doubt that Margo is a priority for the story department. A prior lack of attachment to her son seems to doom Margo’s chances from the start.
7) Rachel Carlson
Number of Selections: 120 (2.47%)
G-Man Says: Bad Pick
Rachel is the only character in this group that was a part of the Season 4 LFL. She was a total no show last season and I suspect her to do the same in Season 5. Even if she were looking for her sister (Juliet), who has been missing for several years at the hands of Mittelos Bioscience, I just don’t think it would occur to Rachel to ask the Oceanic 6 if they happened to bump into her sister on any random tropical Islands.
For all Rachel knows, her sister is in some secure facility in Portland, Oregon. If she were to show up, it would most likely be the briefest of crossovers in the off-Island present or some kind of FB/FF thing. There’s just no reason for her to make that connection, so if she pops up in Season 5, it will be a huge surprise to me.
8) Diane Janssen
Number of Selections: 89 (1.83%)
G-Man Says: Medium Pick
Kate’s mother is another minor character that has shown up every season. We’ve seen plenty of her in Kate’s past and we saw her in Kate’s future. When Kate saw her before the crash of Oceanic Flight 815, she was dying of cancer. When we saw Diane in the future, she still had cancer, but had miraculously survived for quite some time. Perhaps this is a sign?
Don’t get me wrong, Diane is a large risk, which is why so few of you picked her. There might be some kind of redemptive story line between Kate and her mother, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we didn’t se her again. Kate has effectively shut Diane out of her life and it seems to be for good. Perhaps Diane will be useful to Kate I helping her get out of the country or return to the Island if Kate ever comes around on the issue. She very much wants to see Aaron, whom she thinks is her grandson. That could still be a motivating factor for Diane and lead her to popping up in Kate’s future.
Despite a solid history of showing up and a strong tie to one of the main characters, it would seem like Diane’s points potential is pretty weak. She has shown up before, but most of her appearances have been very brief. There are certainly better options to choose from in this group, but Diane could be a surprise boost for those of you who dared to pick her.
These are the characters who we felt had at least a halfway decent chance at showing up at least once during Season 5. They very well might not show. In fact, selecting characters from Alive Off-Island Group #3 should have been more of an exercise in determining who would lose you the least points of the course of the season rather than who would earn you the most. Most of these characters will only appear once, if at all. Then again, I said the same about several characters last season and I ended up with egg on my face over such bold proclamations.
The similarly-constructed lower tier groups in the Season 4 LFL performed very poorly, losing more points than they earned over the course of the truncated season. Out of 35 characters in last year’s League, there were only 6 no-shows. Will this group repeat history or will we have a few surprise game makers and breakers emerge? Let’s see how you felt about these folk.
1) Ji-Yeon Kwon
Number of Selections: 3,129 (64.38%)
G-Man Says: Good Pick
Kiddie Kwon is one of the newest additions to the show (though she has technically been around since, what- Season 2?) and will quite young if we see more of Sun’s life after the rescue of the Oceanic 6. Perhaps she was too easy of a choice for this group, as Ji-Yeon is officially the most selected character in the entire LFL this season. Still though, while she has a better than average chance of showing up, she may have less points potential than you envisioned.
Ji-Yeon will be a lock for appearance points only if Sun carries her in tow. Without Sun around, it is very unlikely that Ji-Yeon will appear. So, her points potential is directly related to Sun’s involvement and whether or not she brings her daughter on her travels. As a young child, I would say that there is high potential for Ji-Yeon to pick up some points for being kissed by her mother. Sun seems like a very motherly and affectionate woman.
I’d say she’s more or less worry free when it comes to injury points. Other than the Tail Section kids and Walt being abducted, very little harm has come to children on this show. In the end, Ji-Yeon’s productivity will depend almost entirely on her mother. With nearly 2/3 of participants selecting her, Ji-Yeon could be a very bland points earner or a massive disappointment, allowing the rest of you to make up some ground through the remaining lower-tier characters.
2) Sarah Shephard
Number of Selections: 371 (7.63%)
G-Man Says: Bad Pick
Sarah last appeared in the Season 3 finale and, considering the weighty issues that Jack is dealing with when we last saw him, I sincerely doubt that he’ll bother to try and patch things up with his ex. Sarah is over Jack and I think that Jack is over Sarah. The only conceivable way for Sarah to be any part of Jack’s post-rescue story is a chance encounter similar to the one in “Through the Looking Glass.” Sarah was said to be happy with her new man and Jack finally gets it and for a while there he was awfully homey with Kate, so I doubt any affection still lingers for Sarah.
I can’t imagine any pre-Island flashbacks for Jack anymore because his back story has been virtually wiped out. Thus, I don’t see Sarah coming into the picture at all in the past, present or future. Besides, with trying to get back to the Island and all, I doubt Ben would let Jack get distracted by something as trivial as his ex-wife. Sorry to those of you who picked her- I believe whole-heartedly that Sarah will be a no show and you will lose valuable points because of her each week.
3) Carmen Reyes
Number of Selections: 328 (6.75%)
G-Man Says: Good Pick
I think that both of Hurley’s parents hold a strong chance of showing up this season. Carmen Reyes has been around since Season 1 and has shown up every year. With that kind of track record, you have to like her odds of appearing this season.
We’ve seen into Hurley’s future and both of his parents are there. They seemed to care about his well-being before he got thrown back into Santa Rosa, so if we see Hurley post-rescue but before Santa Rosa, I think it’s a safe bet that we’ll see his mother.
Because her son is followed by the Numbers, I think Carmen has better than average points potential. She could pick up some Numbers points as well as points for kissing her son and/or her husband. For a low-tier character, Carmen could be a solid performer, though I wouldn’t think to see her in more than one or two episodes.
4) Michael’s Mother
Number of Selections: 320 (6.58%)
G-Man Says: Medium Pick
We saw Michael’s mother twice during Season 4- once when Michael came to see his son and once when Walt visited Hurley in Santa Rosa. While she had a good presence in Season 4, her points potential in Season 5 is directly related to Walt’s involvement in the story. This makes her a pretty risky choice because we’ve had little to no indication how involved Walt is going to be from here on out.
If Walt is going to be involved, it seems reasonable to think Michael’s mother will appear. If anyone from the Oceanic 6 seeks out Walt, it’s not a stretch to assume that Michael’s mom will act as a buffer to her grandson. If Walt is part of a prolonged plot thread, Michael’s mom could appear in as many as 3-4 episodes, but I’d count more on a one and done. This makes her open to FB and FF points, depending on the story line.
She’s risky, but could potentially pay off big.
5) David Reyes
Number of Selections: 286 (5.88%)
G-Man Says: Good Pick
Just like his wife Carmen, I think there is a solid chance of David turning up this season. While he may not be the poster child for parenting excellence, David Reyes came back into Hurley’s life before the crash of Oceanic 815 and has been seen after his rescue. David also seemed genuinely concerned for Hugo, so I don’t think he’s going to split on him again.
With Hurley around, David also has a lot of potential for Numbers points, as they follow Hurley everywhere. He could also pick up FF or FB points, depending on when the part of Hurley’s story we see takes place. Not likely to show up more than once or twice, but that’s the case with everyone in this group.
6) Margo Shephard
Number of Selections: 217 (4.47%)
G-Man Says: Bad Pick
Considering she only showed up briefly in Season 1 and Season 4, is it any surprise that I’m not glowing with support for those who picked Margo? She and Jack never seemed to have the warmest of relationships to begin with. Plus, with all that Jack has on his slate where we last saw him, so you really expect to see much mother-son bonding time? There’s a chance that we’ll see a time between Jack’s return from the Island and his encounter with Ben in the funeral parlor where Jack and Margot could catch up, but it’s Season 5. Things are moving full speed ahead and I really doubt that Margo is a priority for the story department. A prior lack of attachment to her son seems to doom Margo’s chances from the start.
7) Rachel Carlson
Number of Selections: 120 (2.47%)
G-Man Says: Bad Pick
Rachel is the only character in this group that was a part of the Season 4 LFL. She was a total no show last season and I suspect her to do the same in Season 5. Even if she were looking for her sister (Juliet), who has been missing for several years at the hands of Mittelos Bioscience, I just don’t think it would occur to Rachel to ask the Oceanic 6 if they happened to bump into her sister on any random tropical Islands.
For all Rachel knows, her sister is in some secure facility in Portland, Oregon. If she were to show up, it would most likely be the briefest of crossovers in the off-Island present or some kind of FB/FF thing. There’s just no reason for her to make that connection, so if she pops up in Season 5, it will be a huge surprise to me.
8) Diane Janssen
Number of Selections: 89 (1.83%)
G-Man Says: Medium Pick
Kate’s mother is another minor character that has shown up every season. We’ve seen plenty of her in Kate’s past and we saw her in Kate’s future. When Kate saw her before the crash of Oceanic Flight 815, she was dying of cancer. When we saw Diane in the future, she still had cancer, but had miraculously survived for quite some time. Perhaps this is a sign?
Don’t get me wrong, Diane is a large risk, which is why so few of you picked her. There might be some kind of redemptive story line between Kate and her mother, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we didn’t se her again. Kate has effectively shut Diane out of her life and it seems to be for good. Perhaps Diane will be useful to Kate I helping her get out of the country or return to the Island if Kate ever comes around on the issue. She very much wants to see Aaron, whom she thinks is her grandson. That could still be a motivating factor for Diane and lead her to popping up in Kate’s future.
Despite a solid history of showing up and a strong tie to one of the main characters, it would seem like Diane’s points potential is pretty weak. She has shown up before, but most of her appearances have been very brief. There are certainly better options to choose from in this group, but Diane could be a surprise boost for those of you who dared to pick her.
In case you haven't seen it yet, here's the official Season 5 rule book:
I'm looking forward to another great season of Lost and another great year for the Lost Fantasy League!
Namaste and good luck!
