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Update: See what our stats Guru Locke4God has got to say on these latest results.
STATISTICAL UPDATE:
And Then There were 15!!! That's right, we are down to just 15 Brackets that have a shot to place in the top 3, and only 6, that have a shot to win it all. That is of course baring an upset of "The Constant" in tomorrow's match, or an upset of "Through the Looking Glass" in the semi-finals. Of course if there is an upset, everything changes, but I don't think I'd bet on it.
And so here is your list of remaining contendors, directly underneath the scenerios it would take for them to earn their spots on the podium. WHICH SCENERIO DO YOU THINK IS MOST LIKELY TO PLAY OUT?
Incident (Quarter Final), Constant (Semi Final), Looking Glass (Final) 1st: Taylor Clark (Could place 2nd in Tie-Breaker with Ampara Plaza) 2nd: Amparo Plaza (Could place 1st in Tie-Breaker with Taylor Clark) 3rd: David Kidd or Nathan Susag (TBD via Tie Breaker)
Incident (Quarter Final), Incident (Semi Final), Looking Glass (Final) 1st: Omi Papa 2nd: Adam S (Could place 3rd in Tie-Breaker with Matthew Collier) 3rd: Matthew Collier (Could place 2nd in Tie-Breaker with Adam S)
Incident (Quarter Final), Constant (Semi Final), Constant (Final) 1st: Jonathan Dowkes (Could place 2nd in Tie-Breaker with Adam Scott) 2nd: Adam Scott (Could place 1st in Tie-Break with Jonathan Dowkes) 3rd: Joseph Callahan or Chris Sheppard (TBD via Tie-Breaker)
Incident (Quarter Final), Incident (Semi Final), Incident (Final) 1st: Jeff Reno 2nd & 3rd: Jack Kelly, Robert Patterson & Andrea Gangl (Any 2 of these 3 could place 2nd or 3rd TBD in a Tie-Breaker with Robert Patterson)
Sadly we must say BUENOS TARDES to the following brackets, who put up a great fight, but will be assured of coming up short this year following today's result. Each of them made a bold choice to have the "Pilot" press on into the Semi-Finals, and I can't fault them for doing so. It's clearly a great episode, and on behalf of DarkUFO, congratulations to you for placing so well, we wish each of you better luck next year, and in the upcoming Character Cup. Don't forget to sign up for that!!!
Pilot (Quarter Final), Constant (Semi Final), Looking Glass (Final) 1st: Penguin Josh 2nd: Corey Fisher 3rd: Kevin Buryanek
Pilot (Quarter Final), Constant (Semi Final), Constant (Final) 1st: Geoff Cox 2nd: Jeff Rossenburg 3rd: Brett Chai
RESULTS:
Today is a much much better match than we've seen in the past week. Of course you can tell by the current voting, but also among the top 60 brackets (those still within 5 of the lead) just 68% picked this one correctly. That's 19 misses, which means a lot of you will have the chance to move up a bit. If you're within at least 9 of the lead, that means you'll pass all 19 of these guys, and quite a few more outside of the top 60 as well, as you gain 8 points on them.
Early on, several comments I'd read more or less labled "Pilot" as a bit of an X-Factor episode. One that everybody obviously knew, and was a landmark episode, but wasn't really anybody's true favorite, and so it was hard to determine just how far it would go. Was it a true contendor, or just a top 16 type episode, and that dilemma played out today.
Of those with,,,
189 Points - and the lead, 100% of brackets picked correctly. That's all 3 of them. 188 Points - Only 2 of the 4 remaining at this level were correct. 50% 187 Points - 3 of these 3 were correct. 100%, and they stay in contention. 186 Points - 7 of the 10 at this level were correct for 70%. 185 Points - An ugly 11 of 20 were correct for just 55% of those 4 off the lead, and,,, 184 Points - 75% of those rounding out the top brackets were correct, or 15 of the final 20 to remain within 5 of the lead.
So as you will note, our 60 final brackets within that 5 Point barrier of the lead, will now dwindle to just 41.
OUTLOOK:
I may be presumtious, but the next 2 matches are where you'll either see a major upset, or you won't. "The Constant" in the last Quarter-Final, and then "Through The Looking Glass" in the first Semi-Final appear to be big favorites. But crazier things have happened.
If things hold up though, we're looking at a great Semi-Final match on Monday featuring today's eventual winner "The Incident" vs a big time favorite and former winner "The Constant" These two are mega favorites to win it all, and I can tell you that they are picked by a near even split among all brackets to win not only this Semi-Final, but they are picked almost evenly to win the whole thing as well. That means this might be the best match of this tournament, and I can't wait to see it.
One final interesting note. I don't think it should go unmentioned that in regards to Friday's first Semi-Final, as great as "Live Together, Die Alone" is, and it's earned it's spot, "Lafleur", "Walkabout", "The Man Behind The Curtain", and "Exodus" were all picked by more brackets to win against ",,, Looking Glass" and none of them actually made it into the match. I don't know what that says about "LTDA's" chances to win, but I don't imagine it's good.
We'll see you all tomorrow.
Congratulations to Through the Looking Glass for being our 2nd Semi-Finalist.
Through the Looking Glass 2183 82% Exodus 465 18%
We still have the same 2 bracket leaders,Taylor Clark and Amparo "aarlost" Plaza, but it's still anyone's game. How is your bracket fairing? How are your picks looking after today's polls. View Latest Brackets.
Later on Today our stats guru Locke4God will be presenting us with his stats analysis of the brackets and what it means for your chances of winning. We will update this post so keep checking back.
Today sees the 3rd of the Qtr-Final Matches, pitching the first ever episode of Lost against the most recent... who will take the honors.
As always let us know in the comments who you voted for and why. You can also follow along in the Official Episode Cup Thread.
Pilot Jack, Kate and Charlie return to the group, but the transceiver is broken. Sayid Jarrah fixes the apparatus and organizes an expedition with Kate, Charlie, Shannon Rutherford and her brother Boone Carlyle and the dangerous James "Sawyer" Ford to hike and climb a mountain to transmit a SOS. The group receives a sixteen years old distress call from a French woman in the island instead and kills a polar bear. They return to the survivor's base and decide to hide the information to preserve the hope of the group.
The Incident Jack and Sayid's plan faces resistance from Sawyer, Juliet, and Kate. Ben and The Others/Hostiles reach Jacob at the Foot of the Statue, and are soon met by the 316 survivors, who reveal the contents of their mysterious package.
Pilot
The Incident