Before you read any further, watch the short video on the left!
Okay, so now you've either watched the video or totally ignored my request. Either way, the Lost Fantasy League is coming soon for Season 4! Since Lost airs on Thursdays in America and Canada, and since it airs on Sundays in Britain, Fantasy Updates will no longer be posted on Thursdays.
Beginning on February 4th, you can get your fill of LFL action on Mondays. This change in date will allow DarkUFO and I ample time to pull all the necessary data together and it will hopefully make Mondays suck a little bit less than usual for all of you. Be sure to come back next Monday to see how your team faired in the first week of competition.
LFL RULE BOOK:
As promised, DarkUFO and I have completed our Season 4 Fantasy League Rule Book. You can use this to keep score on your own as you watch the new episodes of Lost. Barring any further rule changes once the season gets underway, these rules will be applied to the first 16 new episodes of Lost we get, regardless of when the Writer's Strike ends.
We hope having this rule book will give you all a better sense of what to expect come the next Fantasy Update.
LFL CHARACTER GROUPINGS ANALYSIS:
After taking in the results of the Hiatus League and using my knowledge of Lost, I have speculated how well each of our League characters will perform this season. Were your roster selections foolish or wise? Find out what G-Man thinks all this week, leading up to the US premiere of Season 4.
Approximately every 12 hours I will post spoiler-free analysis of one of our character groupings. We'll start with Group 7 and work our way up to the top dogs in Group 1. I am 90% spoiler-free going into Season 4, so my analysis may be completely wrong and seem amusing to you spoiler readers. Nevertheless, I hope it helps build up the excitement and anticipation for Season 4!
REMINDER: Do not post spoilers in the comments section. I have gone 90% spoiler-free during the hiatus and will not reveal anything that I know, so please do not let anything that you know slip. Let’s respect the fans that have gone 100% spoiler-free.
GROUP 7 ANALYSIS:
During the Hiatus League, Group 7 did exactly what it was designed to do- lose points. Only one character avoided a negative total for those eight episodes. The characters in this group were determined to be the least likely of our 35 to show up at some point this season. Obviously, we felt that there was at least a chance that they would appear at least once, or else they wouldn’t have made the list.
Here’s a breakdown of Group 7 in order of their popularity:
Big Bad Dad turned out to be the second most popular pick for Fantasy rosters. Appearing on nearly 51% of all teams, Christian Shephard is not a character you should bank on for providing an extra little boost down the stretch. If that’s what you were thinking, sorry Charlie- half the contestants thought the exact same thing.
One reason behind Christian’s popularity is his consistency in showing up in flashbacks. He has appeared nine times over three seasons in flashbacks for four different characters. What’s not to like, right? Before you go patting yourselves on the back, keep these two important facts in mind- Christian is dead and, as “Stranger in a Strange Land” proved to us, there is virtually nothing left to Jack’s back-story.
The powers that be have stated that once you’re dead on Lost, you’re dead for good. As the show begins to balance between flashbacks and flashforwards, expect to see little or nothing of Christian Shephard. Unless Jack has another flashback (which I doubt) or he appears in someone else’s flashback (which could happen), half of you may have made a critical error including him on your roster.
Early on it seemed that the only thing keeping Sayid going was his determination to be reunited with his long-lost love, Nadia. His relationship with Shannon kind of threw a wrench into that, but since her death I’ve been wondering if he’s once again committed to finding her.
Either way, Nadia is actually a safe bet. She has appeared three times in photographs and three times in flashbacks. Two of those flashbacks were for characters other than Sayid. Given her average flashback appearance of once a season, I’d say Nadia has a strong chance of popping up this season.
The advent of flashforwards also increases her value. If Sayid were to have a flashforward, there would be almost no reason for her to not appear. If Sayid still cares, then finding Nadia would be the first thing he’d do upon rescue. If Sayid doesn’t have a flashforward, I think it’s safe to say that she’ll pop up in someone else’s flashback or flashforward. This did her well in the Hiatus League at the every least. She may yet have a part to play in all this. The 17.67% of you with Nadia on your roster made a wise choice.
Big Bad Asian Dad is strongly tied to the story of Sun and Jin, so I expect him to show up this season (assuming Sun and/or Jin are given an episode). In the Hiatus League we saw Mr. Paik take advantage of the joint flashback structure of some Sun & Jin episodes. Because each had separate flashbacks, Paik got points for appearing in both sets.
This little points quirk is exactly why I am one of the 17.3% of contestants with Paik on their roster. If Sun & Jin have another flashback, the chances are pretty good that he’ll show up. If either character has a flashforward, then I full well expect him to show up. He would no doubt be relieved to see his daughter alive, and his inclusion to their future story could complicate things again, making our resident Koreans very interesting to watch once more.
Also furthering his points potential is all the fan speculation as to how deep his ties may be to DHARMA, Hanso or Widmore. Since he’s a mogul for heavy industries, he may be connected to construction (DHARMA, or the freighter even?). Also he’s the boss of his little crime operation, so you can expect him to keep his hands clean.
Probably the only two reasons behind Kelvin’s inclusion in the LFL are as follows:
First, if there’s any more flashbacks showing more detail about the DHARMA Initiative, the Others and the Purge, or more details about Desmond’s time in the Hatch, we may see Kelvin pop up again.
Secondly, there are some people out there questioning whether or not Kelvin is really dead. I think he probably is dead, but you never know.
While his chances may not be so great of showing up, the chance is still there. The fact that only 10.79% of you picked him for your rosters shows you don’t have much confidence in his return, which will make him a spoiler if he does.
There is really only one reason for Kevin’s presence in the LFL. That is due to the speculation as to whether or not he is the ‘he’ that Kate referred to in “Through the Looking Glass.” It’s a stretch and it shows, as he appears on only 3.27% of all Fantasy rosters (78 total). This makes him the least selected character in the LFL.
The actor behind Kevin, Nathan Fillion, is contracted to ABC’s other mega-hit show, Desperate Housewives. Would it be such a stretch of the imagination for him to pop up on Lost if he’s already working for the alphabet network? If Kate has a flashforward in Season 4, which is more likely than not considering her back-story has as much left as Jack’s, there’s a chance Kevin may turn up.
He loved her very much, so would he turn up to confront her about their past? Who knows? It’s possible, but again- it’s a stretch. If he does show up, he could be a huge boost for those 78 folk that risked having him on their team.