The DarkUFO Episode Cup - R2 - Matches 7 and 8

Update: 16:45 Thanks to Locke4God for his statistical analysis of the results to date.

Breakdown:

1 - 3 Brackets remain on top with 47 points. Only 2 of these however represent an overall lead in MAX points, so there's going to be room for somebody else to sneek in.
4 - 10 Brackets, down from 13 last week, hold on to a virtual tie for 4th with 46 points
14 - 30 more Brackets occupy a tie for 14th with 45 current points
44 - 48 Brackets are estimated to hold 44 place with 44 points
92 - 90 Brackets check in at 92nd with 43 points
182 - And 100 brackets look like they'll still be within 5 points of the overall leaders with 42 current points to their name.

Now remember, your point value may not show you at the rank listed here, because they are broken down by how many points you scored in a given round, but your overall totals will place you in these categories. So don't worry too much if you have 43 points and it says you're 123rd. You'll still be equal to those that will be ranked at roughly 92nd.


Big Picture:

If you want to look past this round, then keep an eye on your MAX Points. Coming into today we had 137 brackets at 186 possible points or better. That's within 5 points of the leaders who are at 191 points. Today we're going to cut back to around 115 who will stay within 5. But again, don't get comfy at the top. It only take one loss from the leaders, and around 70 more brackets currently down 6, will be right back in the race.


Interesting Notes:

For at least a 2nd straight day, those in a tie for the 4th category (brackets down 3 points) have caught up as a whole to those above them.
Those with,,,
1 Loss - 100% accurate today
2 Losses - 77% right on both of today's matches
3 Losses - 77% right on both matches
4 Losses - 84% accurate (An extra 7% better than the "smart guys")

"All the Best Cowboys,," faired better than at least I expected. Out of the 21 brackets in the top 110 who missed a match today, 16 missed the "Cowboys vs. Cabin" match. Only 5 missed "WHH vs. Exodus". Only a couple of the misses favored "Do No Harm" which was the only option to Cowboys from the first round.

Even more interesting though is that even though more than 75% (16 to 5) picked "Cowboys" to move on over "WHH", only 1 thought enough of Cowboys to place it in the 4th round. Meanwhile 3 brackets put WHH that far. That's 75% the other direction. Very odd.

And if you're quick to note, that means 4 of the top 110 brackets (3.6%) have assured themselves of losses in future rounds, which is great news for the other 106 of you.

As for the impending 3rd round match between "Cabin Fever" and "Exodus", we're looking at a great match. 2 of the top 11 overall picked to win in the 3rd round, and a match that will certainly bring huge losses either way.


GOOD LUCK ON THE REST OF YOUR BRACKET!!!

Congratulations to both The Man Behind the Curtain and Through the Looking Glass for progressing into Round 3 of the Episode Cup.

The Man Behind the Curtain 1927 88% (88.4%)
Catch-22 256 12% (6%)

Through the Looking Glass 1787 80% (88.4)
Walkabout 443 20% (10.1%)

There is a 3 way tie for top spot. How is your bracket fairing? How are your picks looking after today's polls. View Latest Brackets.

Later on Today our stats guru Locke4God will be presenting us with his stats analysis of the brackets and what it means for your chances of winning. We will update this post so keep checking back.

As always let us know in the comments who you voted for and why. You can also follow along in the Official Episode Cup Thread.

All the Best Cowboys Have Daddy Issues
Jack, Kate, Locke and Boone go after Ethan, Claire and Charlie. They separate, and while Jack and Kate confront Ethan, Locke and Boon find another mystery at the jungle. Flashbacks reveal more about Jack's past with his dad.

Cabin Fever
Locke, Ben, and Hurley continue their search for the cabin so that Locke can talk to Jacob. Back on the boat, Keamy prepares to take off again, this time for a all-out assault on the island.

Whatever Happened, Happened
Jack refuses to help save young Ben after Sayid shoots him, so Sawyer and Kate turn to Richard Alpert for help. Meanwhile, what Sawyer said to Kate on the chopper is revealed, as well as what Kate did with Aaron before the flight

Exodus
Danielle Rousseau arrives in the camp of survivors at the beach and advises that "The Others" are coming, since there is a black smoke in the sky, and they have three choices: run, hide, or die. Jack recalls his meeting with Ana Lucia Cortez (Michelle Rodriguez) in the airport. Meanwhile, the group is launching the raft in the sea. Sawyer tells Jack the conversation he had with his father in a bar in Australia. Jack, Kate, Locke, Hurley and the boring Leslie Arzt (Daniel Roebuck) go in an expedition to bring explosives from the Black Rock to blow the hatch and shelter the survivors against "The Others". Meanwhile, Jin and Sun make peace and there are farewells to Michael, Walt, Sawyer and Jin as they finally set sail on their makeshift raft to find help and safety.