Update: 16:30 Here is Locke4God's latest Stats Update.
Just 60 Brackets now account for all of those within 5 Points of the lead. And guess what? All 60 picked today's match correctly. I had actually thought this might be one of the more difficult picks we've seen over the past week, even though "Through The Looking Glass" is clearly a strong episode, but I was wrong, and it's definately poised now to make a run at the title. As one sided as several resent matches have been, not one of them were picked unanamously by those within 5 of the lead. There were always at least a few miss-picks. How strong does that mean ",,, Looking Glass" really is?
101 Points - 3 Brackets still sit at the top, hording the top 3 places to themselves, and preventing you from the prize pool. More on them later.
100 Points - 4 more brackets wait in a tie for 4th.
99 Points - 3 Brackets sit just under the century mark in 8th Place
98 Points - 10 Brackets remain in a tie for 11th
97 Points - 20 hang on to a tie for 21st, and,,,
96 Points - 20 more cling to hope in a tie for 41st, but do any of you in this category have hope even if you win the rest of your matches. Of course there's not hope for anybody if you lose now.
As I look out on the remaining matchups, I'm of the opinion (and this is just my opinion) that there are only 3 of significance, while the rest seem pretty cut and dry. Tomorrow's match pitting the "Pilot" vs. "The Incident", the following Semi-Final match pitting the winner of that match very likely against "The Constant", and then the winner of that match, very likely against "Through The Looking Glass" in the Final.
If there is a major upset somewhere else then the following gets thrown in the trash heap, but if all of the remaining matches play out as expected then I count 20 Brackets that still have a legitimate shot at winning, depending on how our 3 remaining "significant" matches turn out.
I've broken down who WILL BE the winners if the following scenerios play out in order of what seems most likely based on what the top brackets have picked. Things could always change though. Their current position on the leaderboard is listed in (#). Notice all of the top 15 have a shot, but after that only #18, 19, 20, 26, and 28 can still get in without a major upset.
If the winning episodes turn out to be,
Incident (Quarter Final), Constant (Semi Final), Looking Glass (Final)
1st: Taylor Clark (1st) (Could place 2nd in Tie-Breaker with Ampara Plaza)
2nd: Amparo Plaza (2nd) (Could place 1st in Tie-Breaker with Taylor Clark)
3rd: David Kidd (14th) or Nathan Susag (20th) (Tie Breaker)
Incident (Quarter Final), Incident (Semi Final), Looking Glass (Final)
1st: Omi Papa (3rd)
2nd: Adam S (4th) (Could place 3rd in Tie-Breaker with Matthew Collier)
3rd: Matthew Collier (6th) (Could place 2nd in Tie-Breaker with Adam S)
Incident (Quarter Final), Constant (Semi Final), Constant (Final)
1st: Jonathan Dowkes (9th) (Could place 2nd in Tie-Breaker with Adam Scott)
2nd: Adam Scott (10th) (Could place 1st in Tie-Break with Jonathan Dowkes)
3rd: Joseph Callahan (11th) or Chris Sheppard (19th) (Tie-Breaker)
Pilot (Quarter Final), Constant (Semi Final), Looking Glass (Final)
1st: Penguin Josh (5th)
2nd: Corey Fisher (12th)
3rd: Kevin Buryanek (26th) (A very few number of Brackets, if any, who have this scenerio below #26 and have 185 MAX Point potential will qualify for a tie-breaker)
Pilot (Quarter Final), Constant (Semi Final), Constant (Final)
1st: Geoff Cox (7th)
2nd: Jeff Rossenburg (18th)
3rd: Brett Chai (28th) (A very few number of Brackets, if any, who have this scenerio below #28 and have 185 MAX Point potential will qualify for a tie-breaker)
Incident (Quarter Final), Incident (Semi Final), Incident (Final)
1st: Jeff Reno (8th)
2nd: Jack Kelly (13th) (Could place 3rd in Tie-Breaker with Robert Patterson)
3rd: Robert Patterson (15th) (Could place 2nd in Tie-breaker with Jack Kelly)
So that's it. It will be interesting to see which group of 3 will make it in the end, as the 3 crucial matches are all going to be close. But what a turn of events it would be if the Constant were to lose at the end of this round, or if Looking Glass were to lose in the semi -final. If that is the case none of these Brackets would make it, and somebody, maybe even you, would jump up from way down to pass them all.
Either way only 8 have a chance now of winning it all. We'll take a closer look at those tomorrow.
But for now, congratulations to these Brackets for hanging in there until the end.. Good luck the rest of the way.
Congratulations to Live Together, Die Alone for taking the 1st Semi-Final place in another very easy win.
Live Together, Die Alone 1808 79%
The Man from Tallahassee 481 21%
We still have the same 2 bracket leaders,Taylor Clark and Amparo "aarlost" Plaza, but it's still anyone's game. How is your bracket fairing? How are your picks looking after today's polls. View Latest Brackets.
Later on Today our stats guru Locke4God will be presenting us with his stats analysis of the brackets and what it means for your chances of winning. We will update this post so keep checking back.
Today sees the 2nd of the Qtr-Final Matches. Will today's contest be any closer?
As always let us know in the comments who you voted for and why. You can also follow along in the Official Episode Cup Thread.
Through the Looking Glass
Jack and the survivors wait for Charlie to turn off The Others' signal-jamming device, not knowing that he has been captured at the Looking Glass station. In addition, Sayid, Jin and Bernard are captured after The Others invade the camp.
Danielle Rousseau arrives in the camp of survivors at the beach and advises that "The Others" are coming, since there is a black smoke in the sky, and they have three choices: run, hide, or die. Jack recalls his meeting with Ana Lucia Cortez (Michelle Rodriguez) in the airport. Meanwhile, the group is launching the raft in the sea. Sawyer tells Jack the conversation he had with his father in a bar in Australia. Jack, Kate, Locke, Hurley and the boring Leslie Arzt (Daniel Roebuck) go in an expedition to bring explosives from the Black Rock to blow the hatch and shelter the survivors against "The Others". Meanwhile, Jin and Sun make peace and there are farewells to Michael, Walt, Sawyer and Jin as they finally set sail on their makeshift raft to find help and safety.