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Update: 1st August Polls have now been closed and the Brackets update. Next Poll will appear on Monday. Update: 16:00 Here is the latest stats update from our resident stats guru Locke4God
STATISTICAL UPDATE:
Well as you all know it's been a relatively smooth sailing 3rd Round so far, and today is no different. So as we enter our 2nd consecutive day where all 23 of the top 23 leading brackets picked correctly, I thought we'd take a look at the overall impression of how the 3rd Round has played out. It should be noted though that both today's and yesterday's matches were routs in part because, and I don't think this is a big suprise to anyone, but both "The Incident" and "The Constant" are 2 of the top 3 favorites in regards to the number of brackets picking them to win the whole contest. I won't tell you which was picked most, but both are highly competitive, and the eventual winner may suprise you.
3rd ROUND ROUNDUP:
With the final match in this round looking to be perhaps the closet contest of the 3rd Round, I thought we'd review how close the 3rd actually was. HINT: It wasn't close.
The Number beside the name of each match, indicates the rank of each episode in regards to % of brackets who picked it to win in the 3rd Round only. It does not indicate how highly it was picked to win in other rounds. And so the #1 episode here, is not necessarily picked to win the whole tournament. Lafleur for instance lost in the 2nd round, but is ranked 5th in episodes picked to win it all. Go figure.
The match on the left was the eventual winner.
Match 1: (8) Man From Tallahassee favored by 33% vs. (13) Lockdown Match 2: (7) Live Together Die Alone favored by 42% vs. (15) Man of Science Man of Faith Match 3: (3) Through the Looking Glass favored by 72% vs. (17) Man Behind the Curtain Match 4: (5) Exodus favored by 53% vs. (11) Cabin Fever Match 5: (6) Pilot favored by 52% vs. (14) Flashes Before Your Eyes Match 6: (2) The Incident favored by 90% vs. (40) Because you Left Match 7: (1) The Constant favored by 92% vs. (31) The Brig Match 8: TBD ",,, Jeremy Bentham" vs. "There's No Place Like Home"
So what can we learn?
1. Of course 16 matches participate in this round, and you might note that the top 8 expected to win in the 3rd Round, in fact did so. That means there were no upsets, at least in this round. 2. You can see that the 2 highest seeds were picked by gigantic margins. You would expect those two episodes to do well, but you can also see that they were facing matches that were ranked 31st and 40th. In other words, they had no competition. 3. That leads you to note that there were no matches in the final 16 ranked at 9th, 12th, or 16th. Instead they were replaced by matches ranked 17th, 31st, and 40th. 4. That is because our 9th Ranked match “La Fleur” ran into trouble in the 2nd round, having to face the 15th ranked “Man Of Science Man of Faith” . That’s 2 top 16 matches facing off in the Round of 32. Something had to give. Likewise 12th Ranked “Beginning of the End” met 13th Ranked “Lockdown” and lost in round 2, and 16th Ranked “Dead is Dead” actually had the unfortunate luck of meeting 14th Ranked “Flashes Before Your Eyes” in Round 1. Of the 3 matches, that was the only one that wasn’t an official upset, but what a match to have had take place that early. 5. Now don’t get too excited about “The Incident” or “The Constant”. Sure they won big, but the two are on the same side of the Bracket, so they'll likely have to meet up. Instead look at the 3rd Ranked match this round, “Through the Looking Glass.” It was picked by a very comfortable 72% margin, and that was against the 17th ranked match, not the 31st or 40th. It beat out significantly better competition. 6. And definitely don’t forget about either “Exodus” or “Pilot” from the 1st season. Both won and were picked by over 50% margins against two matches in the top 14. Their routes have been harder than any of the top 3 ranked matches in the 3rd round and could surprise you going into the 4th.
Other than that, let’s look forward to what could be the most exciting 3rd Round match on Monday, one that could liven up the standings, and good luck to you all heading into Round 4.
Congratulations to The Incident for taking the 6th Qtr-Final place in a landslide.
The Incident 2555 94% Because You Left 175 6%
We still have the same 2 bracket leaders,Taylor Clark and Amparo "aarlost" Plaza, but it's still anyone's game. How is your bracket fairing? How are your picks looking after today's polls. View Latest Brackets.
Later on Today our stats guru Locke4God will be presenting us with his stats analysis of the brackets and what it means for your chances of winning. We will update this post so keep checking back.
As always let us know in the comments who you voted for and why. You can also follow along in the Official Episode Cup Thread.
The Constant During the helicopter ride to the ship, Desmond's consciousness begins jumping back and forth between present day 2004 and 1996. He is forced to find Daniel Faraday in 1996 in order to get answers and stop the jumps.
The Brig Locke tells Sawyer that he needs to come with him to kill Ben. But the man Locke wants him to kill is actually his father--who also happens to be a figure from Sawyer's past.
The Brig