Remember when we thought Barack Obama's State of the Union Address was going to push back the premier of Lost? As soon as we found out it was a possibility, I made plans to score the SotUA using our rule book. Obama shied away from February 2nd but I didn't shy away from scoring the State of the Union Dress! Check out below for our Special Edition Lost Fantasy Update section just for kicks and grins.
Now back to business- today we're looking at Group 2. This turned out to be the most evenly spread group in the entire Lost Fantasy League! Each of these five characters nabbed double-digit selection percentages. This tells me that we did a very good job setting this group up.
Those of you who disliked my views on Smokey might want to get ready for Round 2 of that fight. Group 2 is very much up in the air because all five of these characters have the potential to have a big year. The question is, who is going to have the biggest year?
MAN IN BLACK
Oh, here we go. I do not like the Man in Black as a pick for your team. Hate me all you want, but I see nothing but bad things coming from this guy. His goal for over a century was to kill somebody. Do you really think that Jacob's death will be the end of it? It seems like Ilana and Bram have come expecting a fight, so I won't be surprised to see the Man in Black do a little of his own dirty work this year. If he's as dangerous as I think he is, 28% of you may have screwed yourselves over.
Whatever Happened, Happened: He just might get violent right out of the gate if he has to fight Ilana. MIB certainly can't keep up his charade as Locke though. His cover has been blown. This can only lead to things getting chippy in the present.
Reboot: This would give MIB more of a chance to add value to your team. The further away from conflict he is, the more likely you are to earn points for all of the mythological stuff that he seems attached to with the Island. He could also score some points for encountering Jacob in a reboot.
Grade: Shaky with a splash of awful. He just seems like one mean dude. Plus, there is speculation that he might be the Smoke Monster. If he is, in fact, the Smoke Monster, then his potential plummets even more because the Smoke Monster is an ornery SOB. Either way, MIB seems aggressive and prone to violence. He would need to cash in on a ton of points to offset any violence he may commit, let alone lead Group 2.
SUN KWON
I wasn't surprised when Sun won her Group in Season 4. When she put up even better numbers in Season 5, my eyebrows were officially raised. She managed this even without a spectacular centric episode (This Place is Death). Sun really maximized her points potential last year and found ways to squeeze every last drop out of our rule book. Now that she is surrounded by Island mythology, I think she could very well lead Group 2 after all is said and done.
WHH: She's at the Statue. She's near Jacob. She's with the Others. What's not to like? Sun isn't much of a fighter, so I don't think she'll be getting her kill on. Plus, if Jin can find a way back to her, you can expect major smooching at their reunion.
Reboot: This will reduce her chances because she and Jin won't likely be as important in a reboot. There will likely be some romance points if Jin is serious about getting their relationship back to what it was.
Grade: Good because I am overly optimistic about getting WHH. Sun might not live up to my expectations but I think being situated in the midst of everything in the present can only benefit her in the long run. If we get WHH, I think Sun could win the Group because she is less violent than pretty much everybody else here.
JIN KWON
After a dismal Season 4 score, Jin skyrocketed last year to finish 7th overall. He won his group and, of all the characters in Group 2 this year, he finished second only to Miles. Jin really made the most of his screen time by hitting lots of DHARMA points. With those likely taken away post-bomb, Jin could see a reduction. Then again, the fact that he is know speaking in English means he is no longer just a side-show kind of character. He can now interact and move along with the A-Team crowd.
WHH: Jin is likely to play a mediator role in whatever befalls the Losties post-bomb. Jack and Sawyer might have at it and Jin may have to break it up. Getting back to his wife is bound to involve some Island weirdness, so I think there is some serious potential for him to hit mythology points.
Reboot: Jin wanted to leave his job behind and start anew with Sun before 815 crashed. If the plane never crashes, then Jin might realize this and score some serious romance points. This happily ever after scenario might last for a little bit but it can't possibly be too central to the story. A reboot weakens Jin's chances.
Grade: Pretty darn good. Either way, I fully expect Sun and Jin to be reunited in the end. They are the new Desmond & Penny. Jin isn't afraid to use a little muscle from time to time, but if he can behave himself, he ought to be in the running in what should turn out to be our closest Group of the season.
MILES STRAUME
I'm guessing most of you didn't take the Season 5 LFL point totals into account when picking your Fantasy Teams. Had you done so, I think there would have been more picks for Miles (he's only on 16% of all teams). He finished Season 5 with an insane 695 points, making him the second highest-scoring character of the year. Granted, a lot of these points came from encountering DHARMA logos, visiting DHARMA locations and driving a DHARMA bus. Even if WHH is the case, I don't think Miles is going to be allowed back into the Motor Pool.
WHH: With all of his DHARMA points more or less cut off, what can we expect from Miles? He already got a flashback that more or less took care of everything we needed to know about his past. Could there be more though? Whatever happens post-bomb, Miles will likely be right in the thick of it. I suspect that his point totals will be reduced but he should still put up a good fight against his Group 2 peers.
Reboot: Will Miles even be necessary? This is why I don't like the Reboot theory. It takes away most of the characters I am interested in. Miles' ability to speak to the dead might be useful to Ilana if she is still needed to help Jacob. Otherwise, I don't know what could be in store for Miles.
Grade: Pretty good. I still like Miles chances of being involved. As long as he doesn't die, he could do well with that power of his. Plus, he might still be useful in the crazy Island mythology department.
SAYID JARRAH
Our resident interrogator was a Top 5 performer in Season 4 and still managed a Top 10 performance in Season 5, despite reduced involvement in the show's story lines. There is a lot of precedent for liking Sayid. He has usually been right in the thick of things and is good for a centric episode at least once per season. So maybe the 14% of you who picked him are on to something. Then again, he went from leading the characters in this Group with Season 4 stats available to being last place among these characters in Season 5. So maybe Sayid really is on the decline.
WHH: Well, the man has been gut shot and is bleeding like a stuck pig. That can't possibly bode well for him. If the bomb goes off, that might end things quickly. If it doesn't wipe him out, then he may die a slow and painful death. Jack seemed incapable of fixing his wounds, so things don't look good for Sayid given WHH. I'm not even sure the Island can work fast enough to cut him some slack.
Reboot: This would be better for Sayid because it opens the door to him finding Nadia and rekindling their romance. That would be a huge early boost for Sayid's points potential. Quite a difference from gushing blood everywhere, no?
Grade: Shaky at best. Sayid's future looks grim as of the Season 5 finale and that's all I really have to go on. There might be room for him is some flashbacks but that might be stretching it. Season 6 feels like it's going to putting the pedal to the metal. Keeping Sayid around might only slow things up. If we get the reboot, he might live happily ever after, unless the Island has different plans for him. Sayid could very well be the wild card in this group.
OVERALL
This is going to be a fun group to watch this season. I still think that MIB is a dangerous pick that won't work out the way many of you were hoping. We put him this high to intrigue you guys. Yes, he seems poised to hit some big time point categories in either WHH or the reboot but he seems evil and violent too, which will work against that potential. Group 2 could either be off the charts in competitiveness or it could end up being a huge anticlimax. I think I'm overconfident in WHH with these grades but it's all I have to go on.
1) Sun
2) Jin
3) Miles
4) Smokey
5) Sayid
Here are some charts showing the full scores for everyone involved with the State of the Union Address:
Come back next week for the real thing! :-)