Group 5 is probably the hardest group for me to figure out in terms of a Reboot or Whatever Happens, Happens. Some characters will benefit from one or the other, while some characters are in flux and might not do well in either situation.
This group was not as surprising in its breakdown as Group 6. Most of the decisions make sense but I think they may still show just a hint of poor judgment. Having run the LFL for two years now, I'd like to think I know a good pick when I see one but I have been wrong, so take these breakdowns with a grain of salt. I'm not trying to put anyone down; just sharing my thoughts.
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Now then, on with the show...
Ever a controversial character in the LFL, Aaron has his supporters and critics. Clearly many of you were comfortable with his chances because he appears on 42% of all Fantasy Teams. Aaron rocked in Season 4 thanks to showing up in plenty of flashforwards. Getting left out of the action and left behind with his grandmother caused him to slump in Season 5. Aaron's success will be linked to whichever route the producers are taking us.
Whatever Happened, Happened: I don't think Aaron will matter much at all. Unless we see Claire reappear and leave the Island, Aaron won't matter. Being left with Carole was a way to write him off of the show for the most part because a young child doesn't need to be put through all the drama that comes with Island life.
Reboot: Aaron wouldn't get any points until he is born in a reboot. This means we would have to keep in touch with Claire a good bit before Aaron would make his way onto the scene. This might hold him back but the reboot definitely plays into his favor because he is more likely to be around. Obviously he'll benefit from kiss points from his mother, which would be about all you could expect out of him.
Grade: Pretty good. Despite his hit or miss status, I think he may be one of the better bets. I didn't select him for my team because WHH is a threat to his points total but I could be wrong. The Island found a way to bring everyone else back. Who's to say the little bugger won't come back as well.
WALTER "WALT" LLOYD
I was one of the 23% of contestants that put Walt on their team. The more I think about it though, the more concerned I am about his chances. There is a lot of mystery still surrounding Walt but I fear that his time in captivity with the Others could easily be explained away in a piece of dialogue. Couple that with the fact that Walt's Season 4 and 5 totals were both in the negatives, and you find Walt in a very precarious position.
WHH: I don't think there's much good hoping that he'll come back to the Island, so Walt will have to show up in a flashback to do you any good.
Reboot: The big red flag here is that they would have to recast young Walt, as the actor is now way too old. We might see him get off of Flight 815 and his 'specialness' might factor into a reboot but I have to be somewhat skeptical based on my uncertainty about Micheal's chances.
Grade: Shaky because Walt's appearance in a reboot will depend greatly on Micheal's reappearance. I'm just not sure that this will happen anymore. I'm optimistic that we'll have Walt's loose ends tied up but I'm not sure that Malcolm David Kelley or a stand-in will be necessary for this.
He didn't score well last year in his LFL debut but I think that the lack of the absentee deduction will work to his advantage. Roughly 15% of you picked the pup as your Group 5 representative, making Group 5 the first group we've looked at to have three characters making the double digits in the selection percentages.
WHH: Vincent was shown to still be on the Island, so I like his chances of popping up again.
Reboot: I have to think we'll either see him being led away from the airport or he'll escape and visit one of our Losties.
Grade: Pretty good, to a point. The producers said that we would see Vincent through Season 6, so I'm going to hold them to that. But, Vincent never really does much. He may have the best chances of appearing but that might be all the more points that he qualifies for. He doesn't speak and never really gets involved with anything major. Even though it's Group 5, you probably should have gone with someone more likely to milk their appearances for points.
I'm still wondering if any of the 9% who chose Charlie did so by accidentally thinking we meant Charlie Pace. Maybe you just expect to see more out of Desmond and Penny. After all, Hawking said the Island wasn't done with Des yet. But would Charlie really be brought along for the ride?
WHH: This is the only way I see him getting points. He will need some more epilogue stuff from the Desmond story line to be of any worth but that could be likely in a WHH scenario. His appearances might only be good for a kiss or two from mom or dad though.
Reboot: I don't even see Charlie in the picture. Does a reboot speed up his parents' process of getting married? I think not. Besides, Desmond would be a total non-factor in a reboot.
Grade: Shaky at best. WHH could be kind to Charlie but WHH is 50-50 right now. Given a WHH, Charlie still has maybe a 50-50 chance of being in it. The odds seem stacked against him but you never really can write off the power of Desmond's sentimental story line.
She's the original supporting character and just over 4% of you picked her? What is wrong with this picture? True, her Season 4 and 5 totals were unimpressive but there is no absentee deduction this year!
WHH: Despite the whole 'retirement' bit in Season 5, I can't imagine that we won't see her again. If for little else than sentimentality, she should be on the scene. If Jack and the others can find a way to get back to the present then Rose will be there.
Reboot: We'll at least see her get off of the plane. I don't know how much we would follow up with her though. It might be better to not follow up with her because we might see her die from cancer, which would not be good for your Fantasy Team.
Grade: Good because I can't envision a season of Lost without Rose. One way may work out better for her than the other but she ought to be able to earn enough points to keep her in the plus column even if she dies in a reboot.
She did show up last season but the absentee deduction killed her points total. As for her relevance in the rest of Lost's story, I don't think she has any. This is why I am not surprised that no more than 3% of you picked her.
WHH: She was left behind with her grandmother for a reason. Sure, Sun wants to find her husband and bring him home to their daughter but I'm not sure a Kwon reunion would go so far as to take them back to Korea. I don't think Ji-Yeon has any prospects to appear in flashbacks because her mother's post-Island story has been told.
Reboot: Definitely no chance for her here. Jin was sterile before the Island so Ji-Yeon has a snowball's chance if the reboot occurs.
Grade: Bad. Sun's pregnancy was a great way to add drama to Season 3 and Ji-Yeon was a neat inclusion to Season 4. By Season 5 though, it seemed like the writers didn't know what to do with her so they abandoned her completely. Expect more of the same in Season 6.
Where there is Rose, there is usually Bernard. I like his chances of returning because the 'retirement' thing was probably just a way to get them into Season 5. They may think they are retired but the Island may say otherwise. Only 3% of you bothered with the dentist though.
WHH: Same as Rose, I think that Bernard will be back during the aftermath of the bomb. They would have to end up going back to the present with Jack and the other Losties. It wouldn't make much sense otherwise.
Reboot: Maybe a one and done scene unless we follow Rose as her cancer progresses.
Grade: Pretty good. I think Rose and Bernard are a joint ticket by now. He did fair a little better than Rose in Season 4 but they were even last year. I just like his chances.
Barely 1% of you went with the former invalid, which makes a lot of sense. Carole was brought into the mix as a means to get Aaron out of the picture. Now that he's with her and the action is on the Island, I don't see her being necessary at all. She probably would have scored decently in Season 5 but we didn't think she had much potential back then. We were wrong once but I think we're right this time.
WHH: There is no room for her here outside of a flashback or maybe a flashforward.
Reboot: She was still in a coma when Flight 815 crashed, so I don't see any chance here.
Grade: Bad. She is definitely the worst choice in Group 5 but we had to include her to provide a little extra variety. Group 5 won't likely bring in many points but every point counts.
I view this as the last group I will have difficulty figuring out. Everyone in Groups 1-4 are more important to the story. Groups 5-7 are tricky because there have to be those minor characters that might or might not work out for you. Some of these characters are set no matter what happens, while others are risky no matter what. In the end, I think Group 5 might couple with Group 6 to give that extra little push needed to succeed in Season 6. Here's how I think Group 5 will finish out score-wise:
6) Charlie Hume