Group 3's numbers were predictable. Creating this group was very difficult for us because we thought Ilana and Bram were to valuable to be relegated to Group 4 but we also didn't think they would stack up well against some old favorites. In the end we had to grin and bear it.
I have a general idea how well Ilana and Bram might fare this season and we can finally compare statistical data for the other three. The WHH vs. Reboot debate rages on even into Group 3, believe it or not. It seems to me that most of these characters will do better given a WHH. A reboot might work out for them but I think most of their points potential lies in WHH.
From most popular to least, here is Group 3...
RICHARD ALPERT
With a 37% selection rate, Richard certainly seems to be a trendy pick. His Season 4 performance was dismal but last year he really came through. He didn't finish high in his group, but he was also up against several main characters. After Season 5, it seems like Richard is going to be pretty front and center during the final chapter. He does have some limitations though.
Whatever Happened, Happened: This is the best case scenario for Richard. There is going to be some kind of fallout over the death of Jacob and I wouldn't be surprised if we got some juicy back story on our beloved ageless stranger. Rumors of a Richard flashback swirled last season, which has me hopeful that we'll finally get one. This could do wonders for your Fantasy Team but keep in mind that Richard's past could also be explained away via dialogue.
Reboot: This will really limit his potential because it might mean that he was killed by the bomb or he'll still be on the Island, doing very little to interact with our Lostie friends. Might Jacob use him as a messenger in this case? It's possible but I think a reboot will push Richard to the back burner yet again.
Grade: Good, because I can't see such a cool character getting tossed by the wayside even in a reboot. Richard is a part of the Island's history and mythology, which tells me that we will be seeing him no matter what. Look for a lot of mythology points to come his way. Given enough of these, Richard should lead Group 3 easily.
JOHN LOCKE
Boy, oh boy! A lot of you are taking an awfully big risk here. Locke is dead, which means he won't get many points at all aside from appearing in the episodes if we continue to see his corpse. The 26% of you with Locke on your Fantasy Teams could find yourselves in the dumps in a hurry if things don't work out in Locke's favor.
WHH: His points potential is dismal here because he is dead. Locke will not be earning points for anything the Man in Black does while in his form. I don't know if you realized that or if you are just that ballsy.
Reboot: This is Locke's best shot at scoring big. His character is still important enough to follow post-landing if we do get the reboot. I don't foresee as many Island point categories getting hit off-Island, so he'll need a centric episode to keep up the pace.
Grade: Shaky at best because he is dead. Unless Locke is reincarnated in a WHH scenario, I think many of you will find yourselves up a creek without a paddle. A reboot breaths life into Locke's potential but I don't know how much that will amount to. Locke did the best out of himself, Desmond and Richard two seasons in a row, but he was alive all of Season 4 and half of Season 5. This is the highest we've ever placed a dead character in an LFL group, so we're just as curious as you are to see how it pans out.
DESMOND HUME
Coming in just a smidge behind Locke in popularity, Desmond is on 24% of all Fantasy Team rosters. I think a stronger performance in Season 5 would have resulted in a higher pick rate this year. His Season 5 total was higher than his Season 4 numbers but he still lost ground on both Locke and Richard.
WHH: Eloise said that the Island wasn't finished with Desmond yet, so there may yet be room for our favorite Scotsman on Lost. Conversely, she also admitted to not knowing what was coming next, so she may have just been bluffing. I don't think Des will go back to the Island because that would put his family in danger. There may be room for him off-Island with Hawking and Widmore but I just don't know. If he does show up with wife and kid in tow, he might pick up some smooching points.
Reboot: I don't see how Desmond would factor into the story this way. If Widmore dies or never leaves the Island as a result of the bomb, maybe Penny won't even exist, eliminating his romance potential. Desmond was important because of the Swan hatch. If the hatch is destroyed, so is Desmond's significance.
Grade: Shaky. I still think there might be some loose ends to tie up with his storyline in a WHH scenario, so I half expect him to show up. If it's a reboot, we might only catch a fleeting glimpse of him. He won't be as central as Richard, so I can't give him a glowing review.
ILANA
It's hard knowing how such a new character will perform, let alone two of them. Ilana has a connection to Jacob somehow, which makes me think she is important. Therefor, I can see her coming into play in both WHH and a reboot. Only 12 % of you were willing to take the chance but I think you might be pleasantly surprised.
WHH: Ilana seems to be on Team Jacob, which means we may see her mix it up with the Man in Black. She seems to know a lot, which opens her up to the mythologically significant point categories. This could be a big boost for her as long as she keeps the violence to a minimum. There may also be room for a flashback showing how she got so beat up before Jacob visited her.
Reboot: This might reduce her screen time but I think her connection to Jacob means she'll be around. She might just be lurking behind the scenes or she could be heavily involved. Either way, I think she's good to go if we do get a reboot.
Grade: Pretty good, as long as she doesn't get violent. She was a little feisty with Frank and Sayid in Season 5 and seems to have a temper. If she can keep that in check, she ought to do pretty well. If she manages to survive the whole season, I think she'll do better than both Locke and Desmond.
BRAM
Barely more than 1% of you took a chance on Bram and I think that is going to hurt you. Between him and Ilana, I think Bram is probably the more expendable one. He barely did anything in Season 5 beyond make threats and appear in Miles' flashback. He may have a breakout season but I think he offers the least value in Group 3.
WHH: Yes, he is in the thick of things on the Island and that might help him. He also seems ready for a fight, which is not good. He may score some mythology-related points but I can also see him being dispatched early on to speed up the story. If Ilana has a flashback, I bet he'll be in it. Beyond this, I have little hope for him.
Reboot: He might still be connected to Ilana somehow but I don't know how much Team Jacob would be needed if the reboot occurs and Jacob never dies. The reboot would provide Bram the bare minimum of potential.
Grade: Bad mostly because he did so little in Season 5. Plus, Group 3 has plenty of other risky characters with more potential. Call me a cynic but I just don't think Bram has what it takes.
OVERALL
I can see a ton of surprises coming out of Group 3 either way the season goes. Consequently, I have the least confidence in my predictions for how this group will finish up. I do believe that Richard is still the strongest character no matter what happens.
1) Richard
2) Ilana
3) Desmond
4) Locke
5) Bram
