GROUP 5 ANALYSIS:
The characters that we put in Group 5 were more significant characters to the show that have appeared on the Island in one way or another. Given this common trait and their past appearances, we felt that they were very likely to appear at least twice or more in Season 4. Granted this was all speculation, but it sounded good to us at the time. :-) Some of this speculation has made us look pretty smart, while some of it may have blown up in our faces.
For better or worse, here’s my Group 5 analysis:
REMINDER: Do not post spoilers in the comments section. I have gone 90% spoiler-free during the hiatus and will not reveal anything that I know, so please do not let anything that you know slip. Let’s respect the fans that have gone 100% spoiler-free.
Now that she has confirmation that Desmond is alive, Penny will no doubt increase her search efforts. This significantly increases her likelihood of appearing in the present this season. She has also appeared in all of Desmond’s flashbacks, so she would be a safe bet there, but if Desmond were to have a flashforward you would almost expect Penny to be in it somehow.
The events of Lost seem to be occurring in the middle chapter of the story of Desmond and Penny’s relationship. There has to be a future for her in the show, but whether that future is now is up for debate. Actress Sonya Walger was recently seen on the HBO show “Tell Me You Love Me.” Could her involvement on this show have hampered her availability to Lost? It’s hard to say.
If you look at it from purely from a character perspective, Penny is almost certain to show up. How involved she’ll actually be is hard to say. It will depend on whether her role is limited to flashbacks or whether she actually appears in the present for a substantial amount of time. Either way, I feel pretty confident that she’ll show up and she’ll probably bring a good dose of points with her. Penny is certainly a good pick, so I am not surprised at all to see her on more than 45% of Fantasy rosters.
From the outset, including Richard was a gamble. We knew that actor Nestor Carbonell was attached to the CBS show “Cane” and that there was a chance that the show would stick. This is why we put him in Group 5. Had we put him any lower, more people might have put him on their teams before hearing about his involvement with “Cane.”
Currently, around 1 in 4 of you has Alpert on your roster. Some of you thought that Nestor’s departure should allow you to change your roster, but consider this- how do we know that Alpert won’t be appearing at all this season? Sure, the networks don’t typically like sharing their actors, but there’s always a chance that he was able to fly out to Hawaii to shot a few quick scenes.
I can’t imagine an Others-related flashback without Richard, especially not one that shows more about the events leading up to or immediately following the Purge. If he is necessary to a storyline, Alpert will be there. If not, cross your fingers and hope against hope. It’s a long shot, but I still consider Alpert a viable character for the League.
Believe it or not, but Aaron is the only Group 5 character that we can say (with spoiler-free certainty) will actually appear in Season 4. Last we saw him, he was in his mother’s arms at the radio tower. He’s all but a regularly appearing character on the show, which will mean appearance points at the least.
The other potential points boost for Aaron comes in the form of kisses from his mother. Claire has been known to lay down mooches smooches on her handsome little diaper-man, a key reason why I selected him for my team. Any time he gets kissed, he gets points. It’s that simple! The only problem with Aaron is that he’s of little value in any of the other point categories. He can’t speak, so he won’t get first or last line points and he can’t walk, so we shouldn’t expect any discovery points for him any time soon. Also, his appearance on the show is almost inextricably tied to Claire’s presence. If Claire is a no-show, Aaron will likely follow suit.
Aaron proved himself a valuable player in the Hiatus League and he should provide the most consistency of the Group 5 characters. He’ll bring in little points on a regular basis and may even pull out some double digits when his mother feels affectionate. He won’t appear in Claire flashbacks, but would probably show up in her flashforwards, that is if they give Claire any airtime this season. Her status as a perennial Beachwarmer might doom Aaron to points obscurity. I think he is the smartest choice for Group 5 and the 347 other contestants who selected him will probably agree with me. :-)
Up until Ben’s flashback in “The Man Behind the Curtain,” Marvin Candle/Mark Wickmund/Edgar Halowax was our only real glimpse into the past of the DHARMA Initiative. He has appeared in seven episodes over the past two seasons, so his recurrence seems to be consistent. Despite this, only around 9.3% of you selected him for your Fantasy rosters.
In a way, this makes sense, because we are supposedly moving away from the story of the Others this season, which could pull focus away from the mysteries of DHARMA. If there will be less revealed about the Others, then perhaps his appearance and points tallies will be limited. Still though, there is much to learn about the history of the Island, which will include both DHARMA and the Others. I expect to see him at least once this season.
If Ben has any more flashbacks of his time with DHARMA, Marvin may pop up in an orientation film somewhere. Otherwise, he’s most likely to be found in the present, as the Losties and whoever else explore the Island further and discover new stations and/or orientation films, which will only garner him basic appearance points. I think he’s a lock for appearing in Season 4, so I’m still in shock that so few people wanted him on their team. Maybe the overall lack of points potential did him in.
At first glance, Cindy seems to be as risky a pick as Richard Alpert. Last we saw Cindy, Richard was leading her and the remaining Others to the Temple, which we have yet to see. Could her appearance in Season 4 depend on Richard’s? If the Damon and Carlton decide not to show us the Temple until Nestor Carbonell is available, we may very well not see Cindy for a while.
But it doesn’t have to be that way. Richard’s absence could very easily be explained if it comes time to showing us the mysterious temple, so you can’t rule her out. It seems that most of you have though, as she was only picked up by 5.5% of all Fantasy owners.
Given her track record, I would say there is a strong possibility that we could see her again in Season 4. Her chances are probably better than Richard’s but those chances seem to have been switched in the minds of Fantasy owners. Cindy is another wildcard that could really give a boost to the minority of owners with her on their rosters or leave the rest of us wondering what they were thinking when they picked her. Only time will tell.