GROUP 4 ANALYSIS:
All the characters in Group 4 are recurring characters and every one of them was seen at one point or another in the Season 3 finale. While they have been regularly recurring character in the past, they are also the lowest on the totem pole in terms of frequency. Some of these folk are newer to the series and may hold more regularity in Season 4, while others have been away for a while, either in the background or away from the Island entirely.
What does the future hold for them? I can only guess, and guess I will. Here’s my Group 4 analysis:
REMINDER: Do not post spoilers in the comments section. I have gone 90% spoiler-free during the hiatus and will not reveal anything that I know, so please do not let anything that you know slip. Let’s respect the fans that have gone 100% spoiler-free.
Expect to see Alex early on in Season 4, but don’t expect her to be a mainstay. Now tat she has met her mother, Danielle, there will likely be some early drama between Alex, her mom and Ben. Alex will want answers and there will likely be some bonding time between her and Danielle. The key factor in her points potential is what Danielle decides to do regarding the coming freighter people.
If Alex stays with her mother, then there’s a chance that the two of them will disappear back into the woods for a while. Danielle has a knack for doing this. If Alex decides to stick around with the Losties, it could be a whole different ballgame. We’d see her more frequently that way and she’d likely see more action and get more points. Also, her relationship with Karl will likely add a few kiss points to her tally. She has proven herself proficient with a slingshot, so don’t think she’s immune to picking up injury deductions.
All in all, Alex should do well. She’ll start off the season in the middle of everything, which will help her get some points right out of the gate. I find it no surprise that she is the most popular pick in Group 4. What is surprising is that she turned out to be the most popular pick overall, appearing on over 58% of all Fantasy rosters, my own team included. This astounding majority of contestants will benefit early on, but once the first few episodes are over and done with, Alex’s potential becomes more of a question mark. Even so, she should be a solid performer for her group.
Except for his mysterious appearance in “Through the Looking Glass,” Walt has not appeared since the Season 2 finale. He performed well in the Hiatus League, thanks to his encounter with a polar bear, but I have serious reservations as to his points potential this season. Damon and Carlton have said that they had wanted Michael to return at the end of Season 3, but it just didn’t work out. Forums have been swelling with speculation that we might finally learn something of Michael and Walt’s fate in Season 4, perhaps them even coming back to the Island. It sounds very enticing, but here’s a word of caution-
Malcolm David Kelley, the actor who plays Walt, has grown significantly from the kid we knew in Season 1. The powers that be did their best to mask his age in the Season 3 finale, but there would be no way to hide it if Walt were to return to the Island. It would present a very difficult issue to explain within the context of the show. The one way that Walt’s age would not be an issue is if he were only to appear in flashforwards. As of right now, we don’t know how far into the future Jack’s flashforward occurred, so they may be able to work around Walt’s difference in age and appearance.
Either way it could occur, dealing with Walt’s age will have to be treated delicately. I have too many doubts about Walt’s inclusion in Season 4 to provide a positive outlook. He is on nearly 29% of all fantasy rosters, positioning him to be an even bigger red herring than Richard Alpert. If he shows up, it will mean big gains for those contestants willing to take a risk on him. If he doesn’t show up, it will mean a significant loss over the whole season but, depending on how they have picked for Groups 5-7, those fantasy owners may be completely in over their heads.
In the Hiatus League, Rose didn’t show up once and the 136 Fantasy teams she was on (5.7%) paid the price. In actuality, Rose has appeared in nearly 20% of the episodes so far. That would give the impression that she’s locked in for 3 episodes in Season 4. I actually think she’ll be in more than that.
I get the feeling that the Losties will likely travel as one large group from here on out now that Jack led them all up to the radio tower. Locke of course is the exception to this rule as he seems to prefer wandering around on his own. But since the Losties seem to be big on herd mentality at the moment, I think Rose will make her presence felt quite often this year. She may not have many lines and several of her appearances will involve her walking through a shot with her husband, but I expect Rose to be much more visible this season.
This will bode well for the few who picked her, because they will pick up appearance points like clockwork. This will only work against them slightly, as Rose is not apt to go on any adventures with the A-Team and as the gentlest character on the show, I doubt she’ll be hurting anybody. I also don’t think Damon and Carlton have a Rose & Bernard flashforward in store for us. Their story just doesn’t seem important enough right now to merit one. Mark Rose down as a good, consistent source for minor points (which can add up over the long haul).
Karl first came onto the scene in Season 3 as Alex’s boyfriend. He warned the Losties of the pending assault on their camp and has since been hanging out with our favorite castaways. The jury is still out on how large a role he has to play in Season 4, but Fantasy owners have all but written him off in advance.
Karl is only on 92 team rosters (less than 4%). Clearly, very few of you think he’s worth his weight in points. This very well may be true. He may just hang around with Alex and Danielle or he may try going to the Temple to meet up with the remaining Others. The future is very unclear for young Karl, but I think he’ll earn a few points early on. His relationship with Alex is no longer being interfered with, so there may be some kissy-kissy between the two lovebirds. Or he may just turn out to be a very boring addition to the cast. I hope he sticks around to at least explain the brainwashing film from Room 23.
Bernard also has a short analysis. Most of what I have to say was already spelled out above in my commentary on Rose. Bernard will certainly appear early on with the Losties still on the beach, but after that, who knows what will happen. Aside from a few random appearance points, he’s probably good for at least one kiss with Rose.
That won’t be very encouraging or helpful to the 83 Bernard lovers that picked him for the Fantasy rosters. With only 3.5% of our contestants holding any faith in Bernard, he could prove to be a major spoiler if he turns out to be a regular Indiana Jones. He was one of the top 10 points earners in the Hiatus League by virtue of the Tailie-centric episode “The Other 48 Days,” but I don’t think he’ll be such a Fantasy stud this time around.
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