GROUP 1 ANALYSIS:
Here we are- the final group analysis before the premier of Lost. This group includes all the big dogs on the show. We’ve got all three corners of the love-it-or-hate-it “ship” and two men at odds with each other. No need to try hyping this up any further, so just click below and read on.
Roughly 36% of you have Locke on your Fantasy roster, which comes as no surprise to me. On the surface, Locke is your beauty queen for points. He’s done the most exploring and discovering, he’s seen the Smoke Monster and is in tune with the Island, he is a major player and not likely to bite the dust any time soon, and he’s seen Jacob. It is likely that all of these things will hold true for Locke in Season 4. He is Jungle John and he will dominate in the points. He destroyed the competition in the Hiatus League, finishing 90 points ahead of his closest opponent. Locke is surely a force to be reckoned with.
But beauty fades, makeup cracks, and the wrinkles make themselves known. For all the good that Locke can and likely will do for Fantasy teams, he’s not impervious. He has been roughed up several times in the past and does his fair share of damage. In Season 3 he tried to kill Mikhail, beat the one-eyed wonder in the middle of the Others’ camp, was gut-shot and left for dead, and topped it all off with a long-distance knifing on Naomi. God only knows what and who he may blow up this year.
Whether he has a flashback or a flashforward is irrelevant. Despite a few speed bumps and injury deductions along the way, I think Locke is going to be the top performer for Group 1 as well as for the entire Fantasy League. The key will be how the contestants selecting Locke filled out the rest of their roster.
On the Island, Jack has long been the leader, but here in the LFL he plays second fiddle to Locke. We didn’t see much from Jack in the Hiatus League, so his 9th place finish should be discounted. The truth is that Lost would not be Lost without Jack. He will be there until the final reel. I am sure of this.
Jack has appeared in nearly every single episode (65 of 69) and has had more flashbacks and flashforwards than anyone else, so he’s good for points. He goes on adventures, discovers new things and will earn a ton of points this year. He hasn’t been involved with as much violence as Locke and he has the romantic triangles and quadrangles in his corner. This could be key in keeping up with John Locke in the points. Only two things that could hold Jack back. The first is that he suddenly turns violent on everybody questioning his judgment. He’s brought them all this far and everyone seems to trust him so I doubt this will occur. The second thing that could hurt Jack is the reduced episode count this season. He was featured in the Season 3 finales, so he’ll probably have to wait a while for another shot at episode centricity. This could turn out to be s season with only one Jack episode, quite a change of pace for Lost.
For Jack to provide modest competition to Locke, he’ll need to have at least two episodes. We know he’s good for flashforwards, so there are a few extra points already. He’ll also need to have more episodes than Locke and keep his hands clean. As long as he stays one of the main focuses of the show, which is likely, the 587 contestants that picked Jack for lead their Fantasy teams into battle need only worry about the rest of their team. Jack will be a solid performer, but he’ll need a little help to keep pace with Locke.
If there’s one thing the Hiatus League taught us, it is that Sawyer is the Island’s favorite little punching bag. Keep in mind though that Sawyer didn’t have any flashbacks in the Hiatus League to boost him back up from oblivion. Still, he somehow managed to finish worse than any of the League character who didn’t even show up in the HL. Maybe we saw the worst of the worst for Sawyer, but that’s still not very reassuring.
As bad as it might get for Saw-Dog you needn’t worry about him dying. While I think he’s the one of the more likely candidates for death in Group 1, it won’t be this season. He’s still too important to the show and the romance angle to be given the axe. If Sawyer can patch things up with Jack and behave more civilly this season, I think he’ll reduce the number of points deductions he typically has gotten by a good margin.
Sawyer always has interesting flashbacks and I’m sure he would make for an interesting flashforward. Both options are still in play, I think, as he has only had four centric episodes to date. Sawyer currently has the longest centricity drought for living main characters (excluding Rose & Bernard). Because he is such an important character to the show and he has provided fairly consistent episode quality, I believe the Season 4 premier will be Sawyer-centric. Sawyer can carry an episode and I think we’ll be in for a doozy. He was only picked up by 18.5% of you, which ought to give Sawyer lovers a quick jump out of the gate if he can stay out of trouble.
The leader of the rapidly crumbling Others is in a very interesting place this season. First of all, he’s in the hands of the Losties, which could mean he’ll be roughed up for information and retribution for what the Others have done over the last three seasons. If these freighter people are coming to the Island, there’s a good chance they’ll know something about the fall of the DHARMA Initiative. Seeing as Ben was responsible for that, he may just have to answer for that as well.
As powerful, important and promising as Ben’s future on Lost may seem, I think he is the worst possible Group 1 selection for your Fantasy teams. He’s #2 on my Death Watch list because everything seems to be coming to a head in the series. I seriously doubt that the freighter people plot thread will be drawn out over the next three seasons. With 48 episodes left, the story is likely to get to the point, which means Ben is going to have to answer for all his doings this year. That might not be pretty.
Ben is good for another flashback before he dies though. It would be hard to tell the story of DHARMA and the Island without Ben as a means of doing so. He’s safe enough for now and likely to get another episode, but he may be unceremoniously dispatched come season’s end (whenever those last eight episodes may come). I think most of you realized the danger inherent to Ben. He’s only on 10.7% of all Fantasy rosters, so good luck to you brave souls who are risking it all on the self-professed “good guy.”
It really surprised me to see the lovely Kate Austen at the bottom of the list. Many fans have complained about her character veering away from the tough adventure chick from Season 1 and becoming caught in the murk and mire of the Triangle. I too feel that Kate hasn’t been very interesting since Season 1, but her appearance in Jack’s flashforward really launches her points potential through the roof.
With this appearance, we know several important things: Kate is now good for a flashforward of her own; Kate is good for appearances in other characters’ flashforwards; there was some kind of fallout between her and jack, which means there’s going to be a good deal more shipping drama before we reach the falling-out point. Kate is part of the A-Team, so we can expect her to pick up discovery and visiting points. She’s caught in the middle of two men, so she’s good for more romance points as well. As lackluster as her character may seem, Kate is a veritable points monster.
Because she has potential across the board, I selected Kate for my Fantasy team. She came in just a squeak behind Ben, appearing on 10.2% of all Fantasy rosters. She has a knack for getting caught, which will hold her back somewhat, but I think Kate will be a major player this season and one of our top 5 points earners. She came in second in the Hiatus League and she didn’t even have an episode centric to her during that time. Only time will tell if this seeming oversight by so many of our contestants will be significant. I know I’m hoping it turns out that way! Worst to first? Maybe not, but Kate will be the Comeback Kid for Group 1.